BTC 1/n BTCUSD: Price has 5 up off of last week's low. Furthermore, the move from the August high looks like 5 down into that low so I'm tentatively going to count the bullish count as price having more recently completed wave (4) (as opposed to doing so in June) 🧵
BTC 2/n Not that I put much weight in BITO / GBTC over BTC but these both have made their lowest lows of this bearish cycle last week (potentially just so far)
BTC 3/n As such, rather than trying to count some sort of convoluted diagonal off the June low, I'm keen on viewing the bullish count as potentially having just started wave (5).
BTC 4/n The red count portending one more immediate low is now the least likely with the break over the pivot last week and price breaking over 21,925 this weekend. We have no clear path to lower lows but it's a valid prospect so long as price remains below the August high
BTC 5/n Immediately above the August high up to 27,520 is resistance for a higher wave circle iv (purple) This is the most classic interpretation and portends that the June bottom was wave iii of C.
BTC 6/n and the subsequent activity is shaping up as an a-b-c wave iv, to be followed by an ultimate low. As stated, this is the most strict interpretation given the higher low in September.
BTC 7/n That said, coming back to the black count, the move from the August highs in to the September lows can be counted as 5 down which would be more characteristic of a wave v of C down albeit failing to exceed the extreme of the June low.
BTC 8/n Micro support is 20.1k-21.3k. So long as price is remaining above 20k I don't see the red count, portending immediately lower lows as, as having any solid prospects.
Bitcoin 9/n So, what distinguishes black from purple?To maintain the bearish count, price should make no sustained break above the 50% retrace. As such, should price continue in impulsive fashion exceeding 27.6k, that's going to make a strong case for the black bullish count
This post is based on this twitter thread.