Early 2024 will be critical to Bitcoin and before then I will make a decision to continue hodling or not.
Here's a thread how I will make that decision and why.
This is just my opinion, not financial advice (1/5) btc bitcoinmining flippening eth ultrasoundmoney
Bitcoin functions by paying miners in newly created BTC each day to run and secure the network. The value of those new BTC must exceed the total energy and upgrade costs spent by all the miners or mining and network security will decline. (2/5)
About every 4 years at Bitcoin's "halvening" the number of BTC paid to miners gets cut in half. So the future security of Bitcoin comes into question if BTC price doesn't go up enough to fund miners at half the BTC (and higher energy costs). (3/5)
Around April 2024 is the next halvening.
The stock-to-flow model expects BTC price to be around 100k or higher by then.
Bitcoin is already below its stock-to-flow price expectations now (and below prices reached in 2017).
If we are not around 100k as we approach the 2024 halvening, the price model is not just failing, it's predicting the bitcoin network and its security will likely go into decline after the halvening due to the above facts. (5/5)This post is based on this twitter thread.