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Fed Day Update: Interest Rate Decision Time

BTC Sunday update

The Fed's shadow is approaching... we have a fun week ahead!

Interest rate decision on Wednesday will be the most important moment of the week

In the chart, we can see an imbalance in the 21k-22k area, and some clear stop hunt zones below current price.

The orderbook shows more liquidity to the downside (19k, 18.5k and 18k) so in principle we could see some more downside.

Word on the street says Fed will announce 75bps which it's likely priced in.

If they announce 100bsp, I'll anticipate some of these areas to get hit soon

The 1 month time frame liquidations shows two main zones:

- 18k: 20B worth of long liquidations. - 23.7k: 20B worth of short liquidations.

So the liquidity we see in the orderbook (tweet n.2) is pretty much in my opinion:

19k and 18.5k stop losses (tweet n.1) 18k liquidations (1 month tf) (tweet n.3)

It's too much liquidity to leave behind. I can't imagine a definite move up without attacking these zones first

DXY recovered 50% of the wick. This move has created 2 liquidity pools.

If this scenario plays out for the US dollar, we'll see BTC dumping at the start of the week and bouncing afterwards.

This would allign with 75bsp priced in.

But again, 100bsp would change the narrative

For a potential BTC short-term bounce this week we have 20.5K with 5B worth of short liquidations and the imbalance I mentioned in the first tweet.

A recap:

It should be a week marked by the news announcements on Wednesday.

75bsp is very likely priced in so we could see some fake moves until Wednesday and a potential bounce to the imbalance 21k-22k.

100bsp and they'll attack the SL and liquidations below current price.

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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