Let's start with Ethirium With the magic catalyst out of the way it is now, once again, a shitcoin like the others. Will move in tandem with BTC as usual. Merge was obviously a sell the news. who would have thought
BTC in retrospect it was a good idea to TP ahead of CPI. Not because I knew it was going to be a bad report, but because I didn't know at all how it was going to be, and last time I left trade open into CPI I regret. So I learned the lesson.
Currently Bitcoin doesn't have any bullish catalysts coming, so I expect it to move in tandem with all other risk assets. Actually, there is this stablecoin bill which is going to come out soon that may actually be a bearish catalyst. Until then, easy to expect it to copy SPX.
So ETH follows BTC that follows SPX. The main question is now what is SPX going to do?? After the previous CPI print, when inflation peaked and market rallied, I argued that market was pricing in a probability increase of bottom being in. And I was going to be neutral...
and even open to bullish scenarios as long as two conditions were met going forward. Those two conditions were denied again lately, so my view is once again "HTF Sideways" with high probability of lower low. It doesn't matter if FOMC does 0.75% instead of 1% tonight.
Market Bullish once following conditions are met: - CPI keeps reducing rapidly - No new bearish catalysts
CPI is not reducing rapidly. From last reading, it's not reducing at all. And russia situation is making the headlines again. Conditions are again far from being met.
Until then, no reason to rush / confidence to hold for big participants → no meaningful flows to drive and hold significantly higher stonks valuations → no meaningful flows to bid magic beansThis post is based on this twitter thread.