🟠Dylan LeClair🟠
🟠Dylan LeClair🟠 4 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Update – Are We Here Yet?

Bitcoin back below its average on-chain cost basis, otherwise known as realized price, which currently is ~21k.

A typical occurrence in a BTC bear market.

With MVRV (market value to realized value) < 1.0, the average bitcoin holder by definition is underwater (as seen by the UTXO set).

As the bear drags on, underwater investors capitulate and coins are transferred to strong hands, priming the next bull.

These things take time.

Skeptics will once again be in disbelief when bitcoin once again rises from the ashes. They watch linear charts of the

exchange rate bubble up & then bust -80%, calling it a ponzi.

Look at at the average price of BTC transacted:

Up and to the right in logarithmic scale.

Maybe this is more intuitive for you.

Realize cap is to market cap what price is to market cap.

Realized price just sums the value of all bitcoin at the price they LAST transacted. No double counting.

It's like market cap, but more precise.

Its only ever drawn down -25%!

If we look to the last cycle, the final capitulation leg was a full fledged miner capitulation. Hash rate fell 33% from its peak as miners shut down and sold en masse.

I believe with macroeconomic conditions as the catalyst, something similar will repeat.

We're not there yet.

Look at miner revenue per TeraHash (otherwise known as hashprice) in the 2017 cycle vs. where it's at today.

It hasn't even broke to all time lows.

That's coming, a result of rising hash rate and/or falling prices. But the real squeeze hasn't yet happened.

The result will be the ultimate buying opportunity. It will likely be painful, and the daggers/chop could last longer than you think.

Stay patient, and most importantly, understand what you own and/or are buying.


I publish these thoughts and data in more long form at

Objective analysis on bitcoin and the broader macroeconomic landscape.

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This post is based on this twitter thread.


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