Gladiator Research Group
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US Treasury Bond Market: Market Bracing for Worst Since 1929

TLT SPY QQQ VIX BTC SQQQ SPXS

1/ The Treasury Bond Market peaked March 2020 during the worse stages of the COVID-19 crash. Since then, government bonds have been under pressure.

TLT SPY QQQ VIX BTC SQQQ SPXS

2/ Knowing this, it is safe to assume the Treasury Bond market has been in a Bear Market for more than 2 years, experiencing one of the largest drawdowns in history

(> 40% and counting).

TLT SPY QQQ VIX BTC SQQQ SPXS

3/ As the FED continues to raise rates, the economic data suggests the economy is deteriorating quickly across the globe, with the exception of the labor market.

TLT SPY QQQ VIX BTC SQQQ SPXS

4/ Core CPI is set to roll over fairly quickly with several commodities including oil and copper falling from their highs seen from earlier in the year (>30%).

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5/ In addition, Rents, which make up 40% of core CPI, are beginning to roll over as well. A recent article posted by @zerohedge suggested Manhattan’s rental market ended its six-month streak of record-setting prices in August, as rates fell slightly from the month before.

TLT SPY QQQ VIX BTC SQQQ SPXS

6/ Components of CPI are rolling over quick, which suggest the FED may overshoot on their inflation target to the downside leading to Deflation. Deflation, along with high debt levels, pose as a significant systemic risk.

TLT SPY QQQ VIX BTC SQQQ SPXS

7/ These factors make Long-Term Treasury Bonds very attractive to average in at current prices. As we have seen in prior events, parabolic moves, like we are current seeing in yields, will ultimately lead to bust, and a newer low for yields.

TLT SPY QQQ VIX BTC SQQQ SPXS

8/ The crisis that the market is bracing for will be the worst since the 1929 Depression. There will be a very large price to pay for the years of incompetent monetary and fiscal policy and many unaware people will suffer.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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