Fabian D.
Fabian D. 2 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Price Analysis: $500 May Not Be In Sight Yet

SPX is basically at its prior low again while BTC has been ranging at its own lower bound this whole time.

If equities break to new lows crypto should follow.

But the trader in me still thinks that the SPX won't break new lows for another week at least, and then...

GDP, PCE, PMI and JOLTS all release over the next 7-10 days.

I don't usually expect any single one of those to push us to new lows as long as they fall within a modest range around expectations.

The danger is if they come in significantly worse or the majority are bad together

Also worth noting that "bad" might not mean what the textbooks say it means in this environment. Strong readings in any of them show a resilient economy but also stickier inflation.

How the market will weigh that depends on the finer details.

Anyway, after that we got the real needle movers for this stage of the cycle.

CPI on the 13th of October and earnings seasons kicks off shortly after.

I'm expecting more Russia war fud in those months as well, which is always a wild card but could get nasty if it does come.

Oh and P.S.

Curb any bullshit about "seasonality" in the coming months.

If the markets go up or down it will have nothing to do with horoscopes about crashing in October and rallying in November, and everything to do with the macro.

Focus on what matters and enjoy the ride 😉

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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