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K A L E O 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Is September The Worst Month For BTC?

Bitcoin / BTC

Tracking price action over the past decade, Sept. has far and away been the worst performing month for BTC - closing positive only 20% of the time

Silver lining - Oct. has been one of the best months for BTC - positive 78% of the time w/ a median gain of 28%

🧵

So, in the midst of all of the doom - this is just a reminder that in the world of Bitcoin the 4.3% decline we've seen this month:

1) Is normal for September

2) Slightly lower than the median change for Sept over the past decade of -6.3%

3) Opens the door for healthy Octobers

Considering Bitcoin's rapid adoption and high growth over the past decade, it makes quite a bit of sense that October has been the highest median return % out of any month considering it follows the worst performing month for the argument of mean reversion if nothing else.

There are plenty of advocates for lower prices still, which honestly isn't insane considering BTC's average decline from ATH over the past several cycles.

ATH to bear market low each of the previous cycles:

2011 - 2012: -94% 2013 - 2015: -86% 2017 - 2019: -84% 2021 - now: -75%

While it's more difficult for an asset that's grown hundreds of billions of dollars to experience the same level of volatility it did at lower market caps, a wick lower from here would be anything but unprecedented.

One other important cyclical factor to take into consideration is Bitcoin's price action with regards to the halving.

Here's how long it took after each of the past halvings for BTC to bottom:

2012: 778 days 2016: 872 days 2020: TBD (currently it's been 869 days)

Takeaways:

While past performance is no guarantee of future results, it might be worth it to step away from the charts for a few days and come back to look for solid entries at the beginning of October.

Hopefully the trend holds up, and we see a bit of relief sometime soon.

Also, if you enjoyed this thread make sure to set your reminders for my twitter space tomorrow, Something is Happening, happening at 12:30 EST.

We'll discuss everything in this thread and everything else happening across the markets. ⬇️

Scheduled: Something is Happening - Ep. 8Scheduled: Something is Happening - Ep. 8
This post is based on this twitter thread.

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