Objectively, I would say there isn't much interest in BTC from U.S. based institutional investors until GBTC starts getting bid closer to net asset value.
GBTC holds 635k BTC, and with the current -35% discount to NAV, there is a significant incentive to allocate to GBTC.
Obviously GBTC isn't BTC.
But if you're telling me that the legacy whales are currently allocating to bitcoin behind the scenes, I'd ask you why they aren't picking up GBTC at the equivalent price of ~12.5k?
They don't care about censorship resistance, only finacnial upside.
Yes, there is a 2% annual fee. Yes, it is not as liquid as spot BTC. Yes it is not censorship resistant. I know all of the above.
But when Wall Street macro allocators want gold exposure, they don't order physical gold and store it in their basement. They buy GLD or CME futures
If this discount was bidding hard, my thoughts would be different.
But there is basically (bear with me, extremely rough back of the napkin math) a 200k BTC incentive to allocate to GBTC instead of the spot BTC (635k BTC * 35% discount).
Why are there no bidders?
I know for a fact I'm not the only one doing this math.
If you buy something at a 35% discount to NAV, and it returns to NAV *eventually*, you get 53.8% upside on the return to par.
Even if it takes years, and you get raked for the 2% fee a couple times...
Is that not cheap?This post is based on this twitter thread.