So I had roughly an average exit for 64k on BTC
I took a few trades this year and essentially have ended up with what I had in Nov for my trading portfolio. A few things you should know. I don't use leverage. I'm not a degen.
For the most part during rallies I've only had small allocations into crypto. Missed 100% of the Eth rallies etc. I never bought my eth back. Wrote many macro threads on why I believed so much in cash and what the fed was doing and how we would get to where we are today
Some of the rallies were super, super difficult. Stomach sickening at times lmao. Of course I had insane fomo, I'm only human. So you could say I made nothing this year or close to at the end of the day. The difference is BTC is now 45k down per btc from my average exit
Eth is down 3300 or so. I believe in Nov CPI will have peaked, as will terminal rates at which point markets catch a bit of a bid. But me buying spot here to me is closing out some of those 3x-4x-10x gains (on alts) knowing Im likely to face some drawdown.
Its like partially closing a 1x short. Bc I believe there will be strong bounces in the months ahead. I was called an idiot in Nov for beleiving rate hikes would come and selling over 60k. Now Im an idiot for buying some BTC at 19k. Go figure.
I figure Im probably a month early on some of these buys. It's quite possible I regret it short term, but doubtful mid term. If I waited 10 month to stop doom posting, Im sure I can wait a little more for the next part of the rewards.
Again, Im not a leverage monkey. I trade spot. It's just my style. The why doesn't matter but in short. Leverage is a great tool when used correctly. But it corrupts most people over time and they dont know how to use it and give into abusing it. Spot lets me sleep at night
Maybe this time I am wrong though. You have to learn to accept being wrong bc that's going to be the game you play in this market when playing probabilities. I did my absolute best at the end of the day.
You have to decide your own risk. Your situation is different than mine bc we didn't have the same thought process, execution etc. I hope to get an average position in BTC for anywhere between 14-16k. The higher end will be dragged up by buys here if filled.
Thanks for coming to my ted talk. Kinda rambling on lmao.This post is based on this twitter thread.