Shrek πŸ§…
Shrek πŸ§… 6 minutes reading from Bitcoin

$BTC, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin: Price Trends for the Week Ahead

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

On the verge of breaking out of macro diagonal resistance formed since ATH

Typically, signals the start of a counter-trend retracement of the larger degree move - or in other words, "bear market rally"

Possible targets over the next monthsπŸ‘‡πŸ§΅


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

Conservatively speaking, if we're to just see a pullback of the 48k -> 17.5k move,

The most ideal region w/ a *LOT* confluence would be somewhere between 28k-32k~


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

That 28-30k~ level was this last cycles 'generational support', pumping us to new ATHs the 2 times we touched it

Now we're below & it'll act as resistance, but a push back up, even for a "bearish retest", would still be a near +50% from here


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

Fib levels are also very helpful for retracement targets. When I use them, I typically look at the 0.5 or the 0.618

In this case, the 0.5 fib @32k holds the most weight having confluence w/ upper range resistance of that the 28k-32k~ range


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

Now, if we're looking at a pullback of the *entire* move down from ATHs, we can aim a *lot* higher

To preface, these only become worth looking at if/when we flip above that 28k-32k~ resistance cluster

Regardless, let's get into it


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

Assuming we've flipped that 28-32k level, my immediate focus turns to 50k as there's a lot of confluence

1) Remains an untested level (the drop from

48k -> 17.5k fell short of 50k~) 2) .618 'golden ratio' fib 3) Psychological resistance


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

Now let's look at this macro degree range

Most of the elite traders who caught and sold the top did so after observing the failed breakout and how price deviated+reclaimed the range

Obvious in hindsight, but hard to see it when euphoric


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

That said, if a slight bearish deviation+reclaim resulted in a 'bear market' & a nearly -80% drop...

What happens when we get a *bullish* deviation+reclaim after accumulating below it for nearly half a year?


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

Conservatively, we could at least expect a push up to the mid range @ 47k

More hopefully, looking back at the past 2 times, this lower range support resulted in a bounce to 60-70k... so something similar could happen again


BTC/USD btc bitcoin

So yea... kinda hard to say w/o feeling weird about it, but a reclaim of 28k-32k~ *could* end up resulting in the bottom being in w/ new ATHs on the cards

but that's just far out hopium for now, just worth being aware of


On a final note,

- Not calling bottom. I don't know when that will happen & will most likely be in hindsight anyway - The move from ATH down took almost a year, so if/when we do get a "bear market rally", it could play out over a longer period of time (months, 1/2 year)


This post is based on this twitter thread.


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