I've been deliberately quiet over the last few weeks. Sometimes it's better to cut the noise and focus on the bigger picture.
Starting with BTC, you can see that the bottom of this channel has held firm and the weekly RSI is breaking out of a bullish wedge.
The huge move up on the DXY index has sent crypto and equities lower, but it looks topped out right at the upper boundary of this channel I posted last month. Remember, when a parabola breaks, it goes down almost as fast as it went up. Potentially big upside for risk-on assets.
If you are mainly in alts, you might have to wait before we get explosive moves across the board. Back in Sept 2020, BTC broke out first and altseason didn't kick off for a few months. We've BTC.D has just backtested a key s/r flip and looks likely to head higher short-term
USDT.D also looks like it topped out in June and will revisit the bottom of this channel. This could mean big upside for BTC and alts ahead.
We know that BTC is like a high-beta S&P500, so here is BTC/SPX. Seems like it is forming a righ-angled broadening wedge. Again, it's possible that BTC outperforms equities over the coming months.
@IamCryptoWolf I thought you'd like this one.
The big question is, where is the top for BTC. Well, this long-term log chart shows us that we could be aiming for somewhere in the yellow area. The bottom end would be 80 - 90k, which lines up with the channel top in our first chart. A more ambitious target would be c.130k.
Obviously nothing is certain, but sentiment has been so extreme recently, with record put options purchased in the equity markets. Sometimes it pays to be contrarian.This post is based on this twitter thread.