bitcoinmanbearbull
bitcoinmanbearbull 25 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Price Analysis: Lessons From CoinDesk’s Deep Dive

BTC here's a gem i use Everyday yes, you COULD draw the perfect trendline for your TF Yes, I agree But what if you could see the trendline without drawing it, and also know where the liquidity is, and how big it is? Pic 1 optimum trendline (many reasons for) Pic2 algns kuj/cloud

manbear u trading 2 min tf doesn't apply to me on 1hr oho?

And what if I drew this trendline AYY U wrong bro just wrong

well the thing with that trendline, which is also important, but I only use this kind to assess a top, not to assess when it starts to drop hard Notice the line here cuts into price a bit Not good for a proper placement of trend Lines can cut wicks but not closes in how i play

why this trendline is also valid even though cuts into is that the lows we are seeking to link up create obvious, impulsive higher highs

so which one to use? Both! But then I have to draw and know which ones manbear come on Ok then

so 1. kujin crosses end up being major trend breaks 2. cloud under kujin usually offers an understanding for bounce points, stops etc 3. usually, 2 trendlines are sufficient to gauge strength, however, a superior method is gann fan the base trend, and look for weakness 1/3,1/2.

4. I've rarely ever seen any trend exceed a 1/3

5. reverse shows the 1/3 as the extremum boundary

6. here example of extremum 1/4 if in doubt where to draw strong trend, connect low to a 618 Notice 1/4 lasted very little, then we got the normal 1/3 being resistance

7. we also kno very strong and correct base line check the high rejections later

8. what value does value analysis give over same area? let's find out! let's start with May 2022 a. POC 30k, since downtrend, want to be building position at or above 30k b. the distribution at start of june nasty, but can be seen as just that when broken down like this

8. c. notice demand turn to supply later... we get tops at where it should be bought up, big signs that the range is being lost Could wait till then even, and not be that badly affected d. we project control from last area of value inside range and attempt to find a median

8e. can we fann a range? Yes, but you'd have to mostly benefit from hindsight analysis. Live trading... i basicaly ask, am I freaking out here, ok, does a swing low form, right cool, do we get reaction, yes, ok, is this local low, yes So one can place a baseline then

f. cf ichi

8g. the ichi is just garbage Paying attention to red line crosses may work out, but you MUST KNOW WHEN WE ARE IN RANGE OR NOT however, the placement of the red line cross, once we exited, was valid, and again, lined up with a baseline trend.

h. how to know if trend? HTF man Also green/red/green/red in cloud Also prices constantly trying to break out, not going This range, not the cloud failing... now back to the value creation on the downtrend from May 2022

9. say you knew nothing but to use ichi because I tell u to because you should Anyway, an ichi trader would have shorted 30k, which was a cloud rejection, which to a value trader, would have made sense too as that was a POC There are few coincidences with ichi and other methods.

but WHY would you have shorted THAT cloud rejection, over ANY OTHER CLOUD REJECTION for the WHOLE of may??? as already discussed, a Baseline trendline, not a normal trendline u may do from training or whatever, a proper one, once broken, we then look for what the cloud is doing.

9c. what is a proper baseline trendline?

1. must go through a low, i sometimes pivot it on the wick or the close, doesn't really matter for initial 2. If uptrend, the low you are targetting is one that obviously sticks out, and the line u draw doesn't CUT OTHER PRICE ACTION.

9d. oke so an ichi trader then holds the short untill...22, then add again since under cloud after (red line breaking is the trigger to close)

9e. value now going down live trading it... all we had was the top where the short trigger was Then we connect that top to the low of the first value area formed outside the big value

we then create LVA and HVA lines

this provided entire theory required to attack the rest of the PA all the way down with no indicators

there will be issues always Price will find new psychology as it moves Control line usually doesn't move much and didn't need to That LVA/excess area there did fail the usual thing of bounce at demand? Why? NO DEMAND Look at the parabolic volume at the time

Notice importantly, June 16, where yes, downtrend still on, but the QUALITY of the downtrend changed Volume stepped in And activity was in the HVA of the downtrend We also found support at control, not typical. we find hard support on the HVA boundary too first time

I honestly don't think you could get a better entry other than gambling or DCA Using ichi, reduces a lot of expertise needed for value analysis, and would alert you about 7% higher that this was the move... cross kujin... then ++ above the cloud!! And holding!!

oke so moving on, how do we long and attack the change of trend... Draw controls... notice two controls can draw (assuming

u can't see the PA that comes after )

steeper control is the one by the books, low of downtrend + high of first value region

The steeper one, once LVA and HVA is added, even without much PA, you can see that the trend is waning out It isn't producing normal, balanced behaviour Hence, we relegate and draw the control as a baseline, between the low of the downtrend and the low of the consolidation

Notice... upper red line of this value region could be extrapolated from June 17ish The bottom one You can too! Just literally make sure distance from control to HVA = distance to LVA, roughly these regions are balanced. (hence image)

well shit, can u see why you'd just be opening shorts here and not longing?

1. where demand???? demand signified by WICKS ANYWHERE on the control or the LVA There are literally none. Notice once we get under the control, we cannot muster to get back up in HVA... 2. so you just develop a short position along the upper white lines... and wait.

oke so what do we do now???

If no demand, and trading under LVA, look for a value to form, the first value

we den link the high of the rally or most immediate high whatever works To (preferably) the low of the value or the high (this is all you would see)

like WTF right

we map out opportunities

and we literally get perfect fuckin shorts and longs

wen downtrend end? should be obvious by now notice... we get hovering on the control line on the right... then a low formed in the HVA after rejection, this is key, you'd never see this in a downtrend... look to the left.. what happens when in HVA? Straight down

But I thought short ever white line? Yes, but on rejections cunt Like, notice bottom right, there were enough signs (no trading activity LVA, value around control, HVA higher low after rejection from area you should have shorted... all lines up

what now? next control!

Always! Wait for value to form This is where both you and me start overtrading looking for breakout or die back in, when all you must do is load up pornhub and chill

now to be fair, that high there was hard to trade... macd said oke This is where RSI shines with a divergence

very very hard to trade and i'd go down 15min tf to see

bc it DID make a new high, AND a higher high on macd...

TIME OF DAY was the only arbiter Asia open usually =vol

Our current work puts us as such

ichi is just elite any cross of red we then know market is up and it is on us to setup longs

so what's good? All of it I love a good gann fan to assess strength I do enjoy a basic trendline when needed I love ichi for the simplicity Above these, fusing them into a value seeking idea allows for scalping + calling tops and bottoms, which ichi only good for bottom

also, projection... We notice that using value to project works out insanely well here we go again on that 1hr tf... make control line...... then later notice how precise it is..

i've added on more concept there, notice, three values created, then the last one is a volatile soup that ends up bear trapping multiple times... This is classic 3 moves down to a deviation And then PA moves to HVA...

Classic bottom

can you see how to draw the next control line?

Clear change of trend... activity in HVA... control serves to be demand point... but WHY no increase in activity?? why no more HVA activity???

Notice bottom demand gave us a HH... but immediately after, engulfing at control... mixed really.. u wait for value under LVA

all looks good right, we plan, we await...

what's this?

did the control fail? Yes it did. Very clear There should be PRICE ROTATIONS about a control No rotations No control Invalid control, so we still use the old one and bid, assuming price is merely undervalued.

start to form another value, under control What is this like other than longing the bottom of the range, even then, I would not trade this until back in LVA

rejecting value looking even more bearish, i did actually short the midrange of this value when it was on, and got caught later

what do??? now back at short entry midrange of range... You take the loss, and you redraw a control, assuming now the bottom control you drew was garbage, and we connect a recent LOW of the uptrend to a high of the consolidation, always opposites if u can (try connect first one)

crazy ik

next... what happens if fails issa ok I showed a few fail ones already but this is good example as it did catch me out live too

u do

the normal thing find some value under LVA This wasn't a good value region but I forced it ... what does price do after?

Clearly, the narrow band we drew was not representiative of the action, already the HVA blew out

BUT IMPORTANTLY DEMAND TURNED TO SUPPLY at the top Clearly, we have a downtrend now starting But our control line gave us NO opportunity and zooming out later, it failed completely

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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