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Weekly Update: Risks High at the End of the Tunnel?

Weekly update.

Risks remain high, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?

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btc ETH spx500

spx500 In Aug I showed why I was expecting a low in early Oct. Well, here we are. There are a couple of intermediate tf options I am looking at. Option 1 below. We are in the window for a low (maybe it's not quite in yet) but a lot of people are selling into the lows.

This kind of behaviour often leads to a reversal. If we follow the harmonics, then this could well happen next week. The next period of risk seems to be early Dec and that low will give us a lot of data. The more significant risk is in Q1 2023.

A more bearish alternative is this. If the low gets taken out before Dec, then things could get bad. I think this is less likely, but the environment is negative, so we must factor this in. I do think this bear extends until 2023 (Feb - April seems to be extremely high risk).

Bitcoin I overlaid the spx harmonics with btc harmonics. The yellow boxes are when they are in sync. This next happen in March/ April. If we look at spx option 1 and think how this could impact btc, then maybe the chop continues and forms a larger bear flag (think 2018).

My alternative count is that it is setting up for a move down to 13-14k by December. I do think that the 14k area is a good target (I do not think the bottom is in).

If we look at a couple of alt coins for guidance, then LINK and api3 both show how end of October/ early November is a period of risk. The caveat is that the cycles seem to be shifting. I assume due to the influence that the spx is having on the crypto market.

DXY Often see these articles to trick retail. The Bitcoin Bloomberg front cover was released towards the end of 2018 (a month or two from the macro low). So this Barrons' article could be suggesting DXY is in it's final blow-off top

(which does link to cycle patterns and above)

Conclusion..Risks seem high into Q1 '23. Feb - April could be the period when bear move is over. Crypto cycles are suggestive of more risk into end of year. As a result, I will continue ltf range strategy.

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This post is based on this twitter thread.


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