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Bitcoin TA Analysis: Practical TAO Explained

BTC

1/ People have asked me over the past few weeks on what moving averages I use for my analysis. Usually, if not day trading, the first thing I do is observe everything on the 1D chart with only the 20, 100, and 200ma averages, respectively. These are the only averages I use.

2/ I found these three simple moving averages to be the most successful in terms of finding possible zones of resistances and supports; not necessarily by statistics of their hit rate, but more of how many times they get hit over a course of weeks to understand exhaustion zones.

3/ Generally when you start testing the lower moving averages in a tighter range, you will usually have some kind of signal that seller's or buyer's exhaustion, eventually flipping it into a support/resistance (not always, but at the very least a significant breakout).

4/ The point is, even with another possible leg down, the likelihood of retesting the 200ma (yellow line) in the coming month or two is extremely high, possibly even sooner if this tighter range resolves to the upside.

5/ In the case of one more leg down, which is also one of my EW scenarios for the shorter term, it's possible to have one more resolution to the downside of continued accumulation within this moving average zone. Classical TA doesn't need to be over complicated, including MA's!

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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