📝 BIT Analysis
BitDAO token price rose 0.426→0.786, 83.59% from July 1st to August 6th.
BIT Gov has decided on the BIT purchase program to increase the economic relevance between the growth of the BitDAO Treasury and the BIT token.
Increased demand for tokens contributes to potential price increases
3/ On-chain research
Let’s look at who influenced the token price movement during that period.
Buy & Sell overview BIT tokens were bought from June according to BIP-9, passed BIP-12, and continued in July until September 15th.
Under the BIT purchase Program, BIP-9&12, buying in the market has had a positive impact on price growth.
Alameda accumulated BIT tokens from 96K in November to 14M in July. On July 12th, 12M BIT tokens moved, coincidentally, the price gradually increased.
(However, BIT transferred from 0x0f4 to 0xc5e moved FTX on August 21st.)
6/ Genesis Trading
There is an unexpected movement. In early August, Genesis trading sent BIT tokens to the Alameda FTX wallet. (might be dumping)
7/ Private Sale Token
There is an early investor unlock on the 15th of every month. Unlock event is not always pumping or dumping. But you can assume that Spartan Group and Panthera are selling some of their holdings.
8/ So, how can I trade using this on-chain data? Where to buy and sell?
MVRV indicators can be useful for buying or selling.
MVRV 7D or 30D Commonly buy in the undervalued zone and sell in the overvalued zone.
The Ratio of Daily On-Chain Tx Volume in Profit to Loss
In addition, if you use the ratio of daily on-chain tx volume in profit to Loss
If the metric rises significantly, you can identify token movements purchased at low prices in transactions with high-profit ratios.
10/ This further identifies short-term lows or high points.
Even though you couldn’t buy from the floor price and sell from high points, you can use it for trading decisions.
11/ Does this analysis only understand temporary events?
Similarly, after the Alameda token movement on August 21st, it has risen 45.6% through September 2nd.
12/ Have the assumptions that have affected price movements changed?
Buy: The BIT purchase program has been buying on the market until September 15th. (same)
Sell: Token movement in Genesis Trading, unlocked on the 15th of every month (same)
13/ What's Next?
Now, on October 15th, the private sale token unlock is coming. However, it is difficult to believe that unlock event has a direct correlation with price increases. (thx to @Token_Unlocks
More importantly, the token holdings in the wallet moved from Genesis Trading are still there.
Clearly, one more price movement can be expected. And if the tokens move from that wallet to the exchange, there is a high probability that it will be local top. Happy Trading!
This post is based on this twitter thread.