Pascal Abams⭕
Pascal Abams⭕ 2 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Price Analysis: Sticking With the Lows

1/ the STH Realized Price isbelow the LTH Realized Price. This is something i've been highlighting for months now. historically, bitcoin has bottomed before this crossover happens, then prices range for months before making a meaningful move to the upside.

btc bitcoin

2/ this metric is suggesting that 17.5k was the bottom. assuming 17.5k was the capitulation through price, what we've been experiencing and would likely continue to experience in the coming weeks and months ahead is capitulation through time – as the price keeps ranging.

3/ two ways to confirm when capitulation through time has come to an end are;

a) when the price closes back above it's STH Realized Price – 22.1k. this is a more aggressive approach, as the price may whipsaw around it.

4/ b) a more conservative approach is to wait for the STH Realized Price to crossover the LTH Realized Price to the upside.

this lags a bit and means you'd leave some chips on the table. but that's the price you pay for certainty. it's not an either/or type of scenario.

5/ you can combine both approaches. get your feet wet, when prices close above the STH Realized Price, then take full positions when the STH Realized Price crosses above the LTH Realized Price.

6/ as Paul Tudor Jones would say; "most money is made at the turnings". but you might not get the turning right on the first try. so manage risk.

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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