cryptonico21
cryptonico21 2 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin Crash? Not Quite Yet

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THE question: are we gonna have a big Nov 2018 like crash? 4y later? Or not?

It is possible.

But technically, it's quite different on the weekly.

1/ RSI 2018 bottom was hit in June 2/ MACD is more like March April 2019 3/ Stochastic is already oversold

However this time is 100% FED related.

The market is obsessed with CPI and rate hikes. Bitcoin remains correlated to risk assets and unable to find its own way.

As the Sept FOMC minutes reveal, the FED is determined to push higher, 75 then 50 bps, and peak in 1st half of 2023.

These minutes possibly signal a slow bottom, but possibly not a strong bounce. But possibly not anymore downside.

The current action looks more like accumulation to me.

What's certain is that what happened with pension funds in GB can happen anywhere.

On the bullish side, the list is endless:

The paypal story, the Kanye jpmc story, the cdbc's, the loss of world reserve status, the inflation, CS, BoE, the debt spiral, EU mica, NY bank, Brazil companies,

the US fair value accounting, possible bank runs ...

On the bearish side:

CB QT continues (but is expected to slow down), recession, ...

The housing market collapse is probably happening. Is it bearish? If banks fall again, are we gonna see a bank run?

Uncertain times.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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