What to expect from CPI today📈 or 📉 Delicious trading opportunities on alts & BTC??
The Labor Department will release its September consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Year over year (Y-o-Y) the CPI inflation rate should cool slightly to 8.1% from August's 8.3%, with June's 9.1% marking a 40-year high. Inflation is said to have peaked But has it though?
That brings us to Core inflation. Core CPI is basically the inflation index but without factoring in food and energy prices.
Core inflation should accelerate to 6.5% from August's 6.3%, with rents a key driver. That would match March's 39-year peak.
The FED is still hawkish in theory.
"The cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action." Several participants did want to "calibrate" future tightening with economic conditions.
The implication of the aforementioned quote is that the FED is looking for clear and convincing evidence that inflation is cooling considerably before slowing the pace of rate hikes. So far that hasn't happened.
A 0.75bps interest rate hike next, could be on the cards.
What indicators do we have to predict the path of the market post CPI?
Dow Jones futures rose 0.15% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.15% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.1%.
Bitcoin is also down 1.20% as at the time of writing. alts relatively down as well.
Risk is high while rewards are low. Historically speaking we could expect a short squeeze for late shorts regardless of the CPI outcome imo. NFA
Follow me @Ciyke_ for more tweets like these. Like and RT the first tweet to help out the algo🙏this twitter thread.