Alpha Connoisseur
Alpha Connoisseur 4 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Cooking the Ponzi Strategy (and What to Do With It

My CPI Strategy 🚨

September Data release at 12:30pm GMT. ⏰

Exp Sept CPI 8.1%

Exp Sept Core 6.5% Prev Aug CPI 8.3%

Prev Aug Core 6.3%

Long ETH + BTC if CPI <=7.9 and Core <=6.3 πŸ“ˆ Short ETH + BTC if CPI >=8.3 and Core >=6.6 πŸ“‰

A Masterthread πŸ§΅πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡

1/ What is CPI?

Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks thousands of items in several categories. πŸ›’πŸ›οΈ

The basket of products/services is reviewed monthly. If CPI rises = inflation on the rise. πŸ“ˆ

If CPI falls = inflation is under control. πŸ“‰

2/ What is Core Inflation?

Core inflation = CPI - the most volatile items such as food and energy prices. βŒπŸ²β›½οΈ

Controversy around use due to rising food/energy prices being more likely to significantly impact the household budgets of most consumers. 🧠

3/ ObservationπŸ’‘

Graphs above show CPI and Core Inflation - we can see a divergence since 2020. πŸ”

This shows the increasing importance on energy in controlling inflation and plays into my narrative of Russia/Ukraine war importance.🧠

AlphaConnoisseur.asymm on TwitterAlphaConnoisseur.asymm on Twitter

4/ Heres an article I wrote for further in-depth reading on the interrelation between CPI and Core alongside an insight into my macro view. I went into stables in Nov 2021 and have stayed there since.

Have the Markets Bottomed?Have the Markets Bottomed?

5/ The similarities between 2018 BTC and present PA are striking. I'm prepping for a potential flush following CPI data release.

BVOL7D and stoch RSI is also showing that we should be taking notice of recent drop in volume.

7/ It's nearly time to start bidding the ponzis again for long term plays. πŸ“ˆ

We very likely have one more last big flush across all markets before another 3-6 months accumulation then bull into EOY 2023.πŸ’°

Chart is smoothed supply of aggregated stables.

8/ My favoured growth/business cycle indicator is the US the Chicago PMI (discussed in above article) has just broken down below the macro mid-range.

This is a warning sign for continued downside in risk assets.

9/ Further to this - US liquidity conditions have just done an upside retest before likely heading lower.

For BTC, we should primarily be concerned with the USD liquidity conditions’ rate of change and the quantity of money in circulation. I use this metric to track.

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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