Sectio Divina
Sectio Divina 5 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitstamp’s Post-Liftoff Bitcoin Trading Simulation

[New thread series]: PORTFOLIO SIMULATIONS

THREAD 1: BTC

4 commented & illustrated portfolio simulations so you can visually and quickly apprehend the impact of investment strategy on the final portfolio size

(hint: X176 to X880 returns)

👇🧵👇

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You now may know I'm an alt trader, especially L1 blockchains.

However, I wanted to make this 1st thread of the series on BTC, because it's ok to be a bit less risk-averse (it's still crypto) or maximalist, and it can still produce amazing gains.

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Inputs (1):

--> Non-variables: 🔸2 cycles: from january 2015 to may 2021 🔸Only BTC 🔸2k initial 🔸Buy strategy: DCA withs 3 buys in 2 YMA Multiplier buy zone (3 random dates. See

Bitcoin Investor Tool: 2-Year MA Multiplier | LookIntoBitcoinBitcoin Investor Tool: 2-Year MA Multiplier | LookIntoBitcoin

Inputs (2):

🔸Sell strategy: DCA w/ 3 sells when approaching Pi Cycle top, last one at top (3 rdm dates. See

--> Variables: 🔸4 different investment strategies: HODL Full load/unload/reload/unload 80/20 harvest/reinvest, 60/30/10 harvest/reinvest/HODL

Pi Cycle Top Indicator | LookIntoBitcoinPi Cycle Top Indicator | LookIntoBitcoin

I am aware that: 🔸6y is a lot in crypto (but it's nothing in life considering the ROIs) 🔸Very few people were in crypto in 2015 (I wasn't)

🔸Most of those indicators weren't here in 2015 (it's just an example bro) 🔸BTC has diminishing returns over time

Said that, leggo👇

Strategy 1: HODL

Following above mentioned buy & sell strat, you buy 2k in 2015, you sell (or not) in 2021.

456k profit, X238 in 6y.

(+): takes no time (-) you give back to the market 80% of your gains between cycle 1 and 2; risky (you don't diversify, still 100% crypto)

Strategy 2: full load/unload/reload/unload (1)

Following above mentioned buy and sell strat, you buy 2k in 2015, You sell all end of 2017. You rebuy with all your profits in 2019. You sell all end of 2021.

1,7 m profit. X880 in 6 years.

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Strategy 2: full load/unload/reload/unload (2)

(+) extreme profits (-) risky (you don't diversify, still 100% crypto); in real life, it's not easy at all to time sell/buys, even with all those beautiful indicators

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Strategy 3: 80/20 harvest/reinvest (1)

Same than 2 but instead of reentering with 100% gains in 2019, you cash out 80% to invest it outside crypto and reenter with only 20%.

350k profit in (X176) in 6y + a 102k real estate investment

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Strategy 3: 80/20 harvest/reinvest (2)

(+) diversification and peace of mind: you crystallize your crypto gains in real life tangible things (-) lower ROI

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Strategy 4: 60/30/10 harvest/reinvest/HODL (1)

You split 1st cycle profits in: - 60% to invest outside crypto - 30% to reinvest next cycle - 10% for untouchable HODL

563 profit in (X283) in 6y + a 79k real estate investment + growing stack of multisig BTC HODL

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Strategy 4: 60/30/10 harvest/reinvest/HODL (2)

(+) very good ROI; diversification; growing stack of long term BTC HODL (-) lower ROI than full reinvest

Could be the best mix between 4 strategies

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Conclusions: 🔸If you have faith in crypto long term, setting up strategy on 2 cycles instead of 1 can pay off big time 🔸BTC has proven to be extremely profitable espec. if compounding on 2 cycles 🔸Safer than alts 🔸 You can adjust % depending of your risk aversion, time, etc.

That's all for this one! If you liked it, feel free to share 😁

Sectio Divina (💙,🧡) on TwitterSectio Divina (💙,🧡) on Twitter
This post is based on this twitter thread.

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