TJ
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Why Bitcoin Isn't About to'moon'

The ABSOLUTE layman argument for why Bitcoin isn't about to 'moon'

Why do you invest in risk, be that BTC, ETH, SPX or some tiny ponzi coin?

You do it because, as an investor, you think the risk/reward makes sense.

In other words, you think the price of the asset is 📈

2/ What makes the price of an asset go 📈? New money

What makes the price of an asset go 📉? Existing holders selling

Now for a tiny ponzi coin, actually the environment doesn't matter. The market cap means if you can get enough retail idiots to buy it, this moves the needle

3/ But for the asset classes themselves and the titans in those classes, you need real money.

Now, this is the simplest way to think about it:

John has just sold his LA beach property for 10mio.

Lovely, some real money to play with... what does he do in this environment?

4/ A) Yolo it into BTC?

B) Yolo it into SPX?

C) Does he stick it in a flexible saving account at circa 3% or a 1yr bond soon to be paying 5%?

You see, money that moves the needle isn't stupid. It's as much about capital preservation right now than it is capital generation

5/ John has the chance to make a 'free' 500k without taking on any risk. Yes inflation is running hot, but it certainly isn't in the asset class that he has just sold out from.

6/ The very layman point I'm trying to make is even if you discount the fact that high interest rates mean personal loan costs go up, business loans go up, mortage payments go up, property prices come down, la-de-la-de-la...

Where does John put this fresh money?

7/ And that is why a high interest rate environment hurts and will continue to hurt risk.

And it doesn't matter what happens in the UK, Europe, Asia... as long as the US keeps raising rates, the rest of the world HAS to follow in order to avoid currency capitulation.

8/ To conclude this little story. Follow John.

Because when the FED pivots, and they will, John won't want 5% anymore, he'll want the 25%, 50%, 100% that the RIGHT asset, at the RIGHT time can make you

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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