LucY - TA Trader
LucY - TA Trader 6 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Price Analysis: $BTC At Support Again

BTC pumped at support again... “ Is the bottom in ? “ Should we buy now? Or is it just another trap?

Let's dive into some of my views to the market

1/

People are saying that we're likely to be in an accumulation phase because of the suspicious high volumes on it.

In my opinion, it's better to get involved when BTC breaks above the range, not now.

But "WHY"...?

2/

1) Keep in mind that we're still in a downtrend, you need to be more cautious knife catching or assuming that the bottom is in.

“The longer the consolidation lasts, the greater the expansion.”

Once it breaks below the support, the move to the downside can still be brutal.

3/

Don't worry if it pumps now without you

If it's a true bottom for BTC... You're still way early to buy 30% higher, trust me.

4/

But if it dumps another 30% without you...

Then, you are welcome to buy bitcoin at a cheaper and more appealing price while others started to disbelieve and panic selling.

5/

2) How about macro?

Growth is in fact curling down, leading indicators of growth such as PMI keeps showing weakness Risky assets like equities tend to follow, let alone bitcoin...

6/

3) Energy price is soaring, which means energy cost for businesses is going to rise, making them more difficult to scale up People's living expenses will also increase significantly.

We could see a downturn of economic activities in these situations. Especially in Europe...

7/

Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is now suffering from energy supply issues such as complete closure of Nord Stream 1, the huge pipeline transports gas from Russia to Germany.

The high quality exports that Germany are providing under cheap gas is in challenge.

8/

4) History shows when inflation gets above 5%, it takes 10 years to return to 2% It appears that if we yearn to get rid of high inflation in the short run, something will break eventually...

9/

So, if you're considering buying bitcoin because the price is at 200 moving average or somewhat historical support on rainbow chart

Even when the world is in high inflation and the FED is aggressively raising rates and sucking liquidity out of the market.

Think again...

10/

Rather than entering the market too soon, I would prefer to wait for either side of the range to break before getting involved.

Thanks for listening to my non-professional macro views.

Hope you all doing well and learn a lot from this bear market

11/

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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