Shrek πŸ§…
Shrek πŸ§… 6 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Price Analysis: $18.2k & Bitcoin at $19k?

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

Thread on what I'm expecting/looking for on on btc next πŸ‘‡πŸ§΅

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[1] First & foremost, in the bear case, I've been talking about a sweep of 18.2k~ for quite some time now

Off the back of CPI, we got that sweep + a strong reaction off it

ShrΞk πŸ§πŸ§… on TwitterShrΞk πŸ§πŸ§… on Twitter

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[2] Now, imo, if we revisit 18.2k~ again, it'll likely result in us finally sweeping or making new yearly lows <= 17.5k~

All lower timeframe local levels are accounted for, so I don't see a reason to come back down

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[3] And so, having identified 18.2k~ as invalidation, we can play longs w/ defined risk despite the 'chop'

And if invalidation is hit, this time we'd be looking to *finally* sweep or make new yearly lows - which is why many are playing the long side rn

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[4] So now for some possible long entries

First, since we're currently pulling back (& putting in a pretty ugly daily) from mid range resistance, the most ideal long here would be somewhere around 18.5k-18.7k~

w/ targets of 21.5k~ & 22.5k~

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[5] Although I'd prefer that deeper entry, on lower timeframes I could see price reversing a lot sooner right around here

Most ideally here would be an entry as close to 18.9k-19k~ as possible w/ the intent to add if we get that deeper long entry

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[6] All that said, I think we're finally nearing an incredibly volatile move in that we are squeezing towards the apex of this huge descending triangle

Here's what I'd be looking forπŸ‘‡

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[7] If it breaks down (sweeping or making new lows <= 17.5k~), I'd be waiting for price to get back above 18.5k~ to enter on any dips

If this happens, I think we rapidly move to the upside w/ most dips getting front ran

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[8] In any case, breaking up first would, oddly enough, open the door to uncertainty and pain for so many reasons

First, we could see a pump as low as 20.5k~ and as high as 32k... something that would cloud judgement and make decision making tough

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[9] Second, as much as no one wants to admit it, we'd all at some point be asking ourselves if the bear market bottom is in or not

I mean... forming a base around previous ATHs + current sentiment, in hindsight it could be a bottom in the making

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[10] And ok sure, even if we assume it's a local bottom, there would be a lot of pain in selling 'early'

What if you conservatively sell at 20.5k or 22k just to watch the rally extend to 25k... or 30k...?

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[11] And if we do pump higher than 22k~, any inkling of FUD and change of sentiment could & will likely result in a RAPID sell off that goes straight to new lows as the market begins to view the 'breakout' as a bull trap instead

(example πŸ‘‡)

BTC/USD btc bitcoin

[12] Best course of action if we break up first would be to continue to play it level by level. Don't get caught up in the moon case scenario where we pump to 32k

Constantly have your risk defined, don't overstep and be ready to flip bias at any moment

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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