🧵Exponential/Digital Age Investment Thesis for 2020s
1/ Agree w/ @RaoulGMI most will miss it. Except those who comprehend the following:
‣ Economic Theory of Creative Destruction
‣ The Law of Accelerating Returns
‣ Software is Eating the World
2/ Economic Theory of Creative Destruction — Joseph Schumpeter
‣ New technologies are always evolving, overtaking the old, and destroying previous economic and technological systems to make way for progress.
3/ The Law of Accelerating Returns — @raykurzweil
3a/ The Law of Accelerating Returns — @raykurzweil
‣ Technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So, we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).
3b/ The Law of Accelerating Returns — @raykurzweil
‣ Rate at which technology advances is growing exponentially, never slows down, and is not impacted at all by wars, economic recessions, nor depressions.
‣ Theory is that we are in the middle of a dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies are poised to take over large swathes of the economy.
5/ Network Effects
‣ Ignored mainstream news/analysts and instead followed learnings from @MIT wrt technology adoption & network effects for AAPL TSLA ETH BTC.
‣ @NFX is a phenomenal educational resource to learn about network effects:
5a/ AAPL - Network Value Model
5c/ Macro Outlook for Digital Asset Class
Bitcoin ~ Digital Property Network
Ethereum ~ Digital Oil Platform
altcoins projects where data shows network usage/adoption
5d/ Conceptualizing Ethereum ETH ETH
6/ History of Technological Advancement
‣ The technology sector may fall out of favour with investors for periods of time, but the technology advances, and inroads into the economy continue relentlessly.This post is based on this twitter thread.