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Op-ed: US Dollar to Relax, US Dollar To Ease, US Inflation Expectations

1. Next Week Crypto News + Trading


✅ Earnings Reports. ✅ US Inflation. ✅ News events. ✅ DXY chart. ✅ BTC chart.

Conclusion: US dollar to ease and allow cryptomarkets to move next week.

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2. Earnings Reports:

Rising interest are good for banks and allow them to earn more from loans & mortgages.

Bank of America: Forecast to fall 8.4% (0.85 to 0.78) Bank of NY Mellon: Forecast to rise 9.4% (1.04 to 1.14) Goldman Sachs: Forecast to plunge 48% (14.93 to 7.75)

3. US Inflation:

This week saw the US CPI MoM figure was +0.4% vs +0.2% expected and 8.2% YoY, that’s the good news.

The bad news was the Core CPI, (which excludes food and energy), rose to 6.6% YoY from 6.3% YoY in August, this was the highest Core reading in 40 years.

4. US Inflation (cont.)

This suggests the bulk of inflation was due to sources outside of food and energy.

The 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectation for October increased to 5.1% from 4.7% and the 5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation for October increased to 2.9% from 2.7%.

5. News events:

The focus shifts to how aggressive the Fed should now be? Tues, Weds, Thrus and Fri we hear from members of the FederalReserve. Though the markets are already priced in for interest rate increases in the coming months.

6. News events (cont.)

Mon 17th 12:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index. Weds 19th 6pm Beige Book (not expected to move markets). Thrus 20th 12:30 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

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7. News events (cont.)

Both the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are expected to remain in contraction territory and possibly signal some easing of price pressures, but limited as energy costs have rebounded.

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8. DXY Chart.

Lack of news events next week, price getting rejected 4 times on the black line. Expecting DXY to go sideways next week allowing the cryptomarket to move freely.

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9. BTC chart.

Bitcoin still stuck inside the purple wedge pattern. Expecting in the future for price to break the blue area and try to make a support around 17500 (16000 - 18000 zone).


This post is based on this twitter thread.


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