BTC Sunday update:
At 17.5k there is the most liquidations there has been in the last year.
This liquidation heatmap shows that we haven't had a yellow bar in the last year until now and that it only got brighter (more liqs) during this range.
MMs are preparing the next move
I believe that the whole idea behind this range was pretty much to build liquidations below the range
Especially in the past month with the 18k "support tests"
With this data, I personally can't imagine a bull run starting without sweeping the lows at least. Hopefully I'm wrong
SPX looks like it wants to fill this liquidity pool which could lead BTC to execute this dump.
BTC is highly correlated with SPX500.
But we're looking at weekly time frame so this move could take a bit longer and not be inmediate.
What are the potential catalysts for a dump?
We don't have important news announcents scheduled for this week.
UK will probably announce that inflation is worse than the previous month (cost of living crisis) as we've seen other countries announcing this in the past weeks.
But more concerning is that the risks of escalation in the Ukraine war are rising fast, as this could shake the market easily.
Also, we'll likely see another rate hike the 2nd of November that will affect positively the DXY and, therefore, negatively BTC.
So the next 30 days are key for BTC to hold this area...
But we'll stick to trade level by level and make money wether BTC goes up or down.
This is just some context to be cautious and not FOMO in quick bounces
The fast moves are the false moves because MM creates liquidity pools behind these moves
Every fast bounce got retraced...
In the meantime, we still have a problem with the BTC chart in short-mid term:
This wick in 4h tf will get filled
There is also an imbalance and short liquidations at 21k so we could visit that zone first... but this is the potential scenario I came up with for next week👍
Of course I don't dismiss scenarios visiting 21k first or dumping below 18k next week.
All I do is trying to come up with the most likely scenario according to my perspective.
You guys know I am mostly a scalper with no bias. It doesn't affect me that BTC goes to 17k or 21k.This post is based on this twitter thread.