Let's take a look at btc and spx...Imagine we live in a timeline where there's a binary outcome of spx to 3200 or 4000 from these levels
If spx goes to 4000 and btc has a 1:1 correlation we get the first outcome and another outcome of lighting up a short squeeze that wicks high and comes back down to 21k ish level
Then we have spx at 4000, if we pull back from there do we expect a bullish decoupling of btc? (seems unlikely) or we just have spx keep going up (what likelihood do we really think that this is the equities bottom?)
Very difficult for indices to go up with key names like tsla, aapl, msft gapping down if they lose critical support (how likely do we think the bottom is in for these names?)
Let's say we have the spx 3200 scenario...where does btc trade? Tough to say, maybe 14k.
*But all the key macro indicators say I should be long btc shouldn't I just long* Well, we have been in a 15 year up market -- no indicator is going to overpower if equity bottom isn't in
In light of all of this, here are some alternative trades to just longing : - Long btc vol - Short alt/btc
- Long 22k with better macro forecasts coming in
- Long 14k btc
Food for thoughtThis post is based on this twitter thread.