Will BTC drop 50%, like in November of 2018?
Many analysts believe that BTC, now at 19k, is similar to BTC at 6k in November of 2018.
They are wrong about this bear market; let's find the most realistic bottom price target for BTC.
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1/10 We need to compare the data to find similarities between the 2018 drop and the current market.
We will use the following:
- Realized price long-term holders (coins bought 12-18M ago) - Realized price (all coins bought) - BTC Price spot all exchanges
2/10 As a recap,
BTC realized price is the value of all the coins at the price that were bought divided by the amount of BTC that is in circulation.
price of BTC when bought/circulating supply of BTC = realized price
3/10 Let's focus on the realized price bear market signal and how it compares with the current market trend.
4/10 The bear market signal appears when:
- The realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) goes over the realized price of all coins (red line) bought - The BTC price falls below the realized price of long-term holders and the realized price of all coins.
5/10 That means when you buy in the red area; you are buying at much better base prices than 12-18 long-term holders.
That's a fantastic opportunity.
6/10 If we apply the same analysis to the current market, then:
We have been in a bear market for 124 days.
The drop from 6k to 3k is similar to the drop from 30k to 18k.
7/10 The percentage drop in the last bear market from 6k to 3k was 50%.
The drop from 30.7k to 18.2k was 41%
A 50% drop from 30.7k would put BTC at 15k (-18% from the current price)
8/10 I believe that would be the bottom price of the current bear market.
It also coincides with the BTC delta price of 14.7k
9/10 Conclusion: Even though the delta price is lower than the current price, accumulating in this bearish phase is a much better strategy than fearing upcoming price drops.
Thanks for reading!
10/10 I hope you've found this thread helpful.
I try and make on-chain analysis easy to understand so that anyone can time the market. Follow me @onchain_edge
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