HOT TAKE; The market is going to dump this week (and BTC) read this thread to hear why;
crypto btc bitcoin ethererum avax avalanche bnb binance matic sol spy DXY Bearmarket cryptocurrency cryptonews eth matic sol avax xrp
1; to start, I know a lot of people are expecting a massive rally in the SPY and in BTC this week, mainly because it’s the most important earnings week, they’re looking at the DXY might be peaking, and a WSJ article suggested the fed will ‘pivot’.
2. Firstly, let’s look at the pump by the WSJ article. It was essentially confirmed that the Fed would raise rates by 75 basis points, then 50 points the next month. This is being considered as a ‘pivot’
3. What we should know is that the Fed had already announced that a raise of 150 basis points were planned. And they will continue raising through 2023. The -15 point reduction expected came out on the news that the Japanese Yen was in deep trouble, and the BOJ had to intervene.
5. It’s interesting to me how this happened as the yields on bonds where getting parabolic, aswell as the US dollar, as a lot of people where dumping the Yen for the
6. Stocks, more specifically the SPY was essentially at breaking point and everyone was gearing up for a nuke on cryptocurrency, and all other markets.
7. Lastly, look how the market has been reacting to earnings. It’s been less than stellar. Snap fell 30% after beating earnings. Multinational companies have been tackling the parabolic rise of the dollar as a weakness. They take income in all currencies.
Pair that with consumer sentiment for most 2022.. and you’ve got a recipe for disaster
Regardless if we like it or not, the world is facing war and recession not seen since the early 1900s. This will not go away on a ‘Fed Pivot’
@musicandwork I expect a lot are going to have hawkish outlooks on
future revenue and lower estimates for Q4, maybe go the Snap route and not even announce estimates. Any sign of hawkishness and the market will retrace
@IncomeSharks But if when I look at the macros, specifically with currency, I don’t know if we have to much hope on a smashing bout of hopium, it’s midterms, fed is pivoting, we’ve found a bottom, earnings week is going to rally the market! All it takes is one bit of bad news to crumble it!This post is based on this twitter thread.