Ӿllicnac
Ӿllicnac 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Update – BTC Still Has More Room to Fall

A revisit to BTC ‘s current macro wave count

This has been one of the harder corrections to call as I’m still a bit torn between a few possibilities

Regardless, let’s acknowledge them! 👇

1️⃣ - The mega-bear 🐻

The current bear structure we are seeing has the characteristics of a motive wave (so far)

While I can still make the case for an ABC, another strong leg down supports the idea of a 5-wave move

If that’s the case we could be in store for a macro 5-3-5 ZZ

Yes, I acknowledge this wave count is brutal & does insist on a ‘multi-year’ bear market

However, it can also be justified via

the 2W chart

*IF this decade+ long cycle has completed, we can reasonably expect a larger corrective wave before resuming another bullish phase

2️⃣ - The medium bear 🐻

Despite still being a bearish count & potentially forming into something more, this idea supports a macro low being formed in the mid-term with the competition of a smaller 5-3-5

I will say though, I question this count due to price’s impulsive nature

3️⃣ - The Bottom is in 📈

While it may be unlikely, there is still a possibility we are in w4 of a larger motive wave

This is only brought to consideration because price is yet to invalidate below the high of w1 (14k-ish)

If we break the high of w1, the w4 idea will invalidate

4️⃣ - Complex Correction

A popular count I’ve been seeing on my TL

Very similar to the ABC count (2), this count suggests a more complex correction is taking place

However, I DO NOT* believe this count is correct because wave-Y exceeds the 1.618 of wave-W by a large margin

Conclusion

From my personal perspective, it seems like BTC has more room to fall

If bearish wave counts prevail, I will look for the area of 6k - 10k to serve as the macro bottom for BTC

Again, this is all SPECULATION!🔎

Any alternative counts are welcomed!

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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