Quincy Diepeveen
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Bootcamp: GAS = THE ECONOMY WE CAN’T Use

THE WEEKLY MACRO OUTLOOK - GAS = THE ECONOMY

Like every Monday, we will dive into the world of macro economics, with an extra focus on event planning this week, because there is a lot going on!

1/n

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There is also a FREE Crypto/Macro Economy Bootcamp tonight, presented by @CryptoMichNL and myself. You can still register via the link below!

http://get.eightglobal.com/bootcamp/
Quincy Diepeveen on TwitterQuincy Diepeveen on Twitter

Quick Summary of the last weeks

- BoJ intervention - BoE double intervention - Yields at ATH's, everywhere

Quincy Diepeveen on TwitterQuincy Diepeveen on Twitter

And to top it off, now the US is starting to feel the burden of rising yields. Now we see that the relevant rise in the DXY is no longer equivalent to the rise in yields. Remember that the rise in yields is only sustainable if the currency can bear it.

Why gas is the perfect economic comparison right now!

Where peak data is just a snapshot, steering on it will create new problems in the future. Gas a perfect example, with huge purchases and now unexpectedly high temperatures in Europe.

A surplus, and now a huge price drop, -45% from the peak.

Now back to the economy. If you rely on data and steer for peak problems then you get excessive solutions that do not fit the current status.

See steering Gas procurement on peak demand, see basing QT on peak inflation.

There is so much data, the picture only shows the bare minimum. For all the dates, click on the link!

Potential Market movers • Flash Services PMI • Flash Manufacturing PMI • All the Speeches • GDP • PCE • EUR Monetary Policy Statement

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Important Data Points • All the PMI’s from countries in Europe • Consumer Confidence • New Home Sales • BoJ Monetary Policy Statement • Personal Spending • Personal Income • Inflation Expectations

Last week, the FED showed it's hand with this signal:

Quincy Diepeveen on TwitterQuincy Diepeveen on Twitter

So with everything we've seen over the past few weeks, we know that economically we are moving towards a huge breaking point. Our base case is that this breaking point will be prevented by Fed intervention. The data this week will lead into this.

Thanks for reading! This is a short summary of the full version, which is available in the Eight Global Trade Letter!

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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