Crypto Trades Fleh
Crypto Trades Fleh 4 minutes reading from Bitcoin

What’s Going on with the Global Economy?

Interesting things are happening in the economy right now.

Here’s my thoughts on the wider global economy at the moment and what it means for BTC and stocks going forward.

(Thread) 🧵

Retail Positioning: Last week, retail traders bought 19.9 billion worth of puts to open. They bought only 6.5 billion in calls to open. This is the first time in history that puts were 3x calls. Every other time close was a major low (2020, 2016, 2009, 2003)

38% (majority) of Fund Managers expect the Fed tightening cycle to end in Q1 2023 – one quarter faster than a month ago BullishAlert

Fund managers are crowded into cash and out of equities. These conditions are present at every capitulation low.

These three charts are the keys to the market, when they stop going up (2yr yield, 10yr yield, USD) the market will go rally quickly & aggressively as no one is positioned for such a change. These 3 charts are all you need to watch for a sign of change. Everything else is noise.

In summary:

What’s Priced Into Markets •Bad Earnings •Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) •Another 150bps of hikes •Supply Chain Issues •Shortage of Labor •Energy Price Shocks •Record Inflation •Drawn out War in Ukraine

What’s NOT Priced Into Markets:

•Interest Rates Falling •USD stabilizing •Up to 1T in stock buybacks before new 1% tax hits on January 1, 2023 •Better than expected earnings (low bar) •Historically low unemployment rate •750 billion stimulus hasn’t hit economy yet

(Continuation)

•Supply Chain Improving •Freight Rates Dropping •Collapsing prices: Commodities, Gas, Rents, Used Cars •Political Gridlock after November 8 election (bullish) •Millennials (72M) housing/family formation wave JUST BEGINNING •Less hikes than 150bps more

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I hope this helps bring a new perspective to you all.

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This post is based on this twitter thread.

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