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Bitcoin Could Break Out in the Coming Weeks

We all know the macroeconomic fundamentals are not so good right now, but what about the technical?

Here is why btc could be on the verge of a breakout in the coming weeks 🧵 1/8

2/8 Intro

Assumption: Bitcoin is king and still drives the whole crypto market

I’ll break down my short analysis in 5 parts: - Top to bottom % - Uptrend before halving - RSI momentum indicator - MACD trend-following indicator - Capitulation candle

3/8 Top to bottom %

BTC has had 2 full cycles so far. Each time, price decreased from ATH

2014 : -88% 2018 : -84%

It is broadly accepted that BTC follows diminishing returns, which means also decreasing gaps between top and bottom

In 2022, BTC went to 17.5k or -75%

4/8 Uptrend before halving

Bitcoin halvings have always played a role in the reversal

Price seems to bottom few months before

Cycle 1: 18 months prior to 2016 halving Cycle 2: 17 months prior to 2020 halving

Next halving is March-May 2024, which means 16-17 months is now

5/8 RSI momentum indicator

The relative strength index (RSI) is used to point out if an asset is overbought or oversold

It can also indicate if it's primed for a reversal or pullback

In the last 2 cycles, BTC has bounced off the same trendline and we might bounce again soon

6/8 MACD trend-following indicator

The Moving average convergence/divergence indicator (MACD) shows the relationship between trends: short-term and long-term

We use it to validate a change in direction

It seems like we already started to converge (red to pink bars)

7/8 Capitulation candle

Regardless of the type of asset, the change in direction of a trend is often marked by a clear turning point

I call it the “capitulation candle”

When accompanied by heavy volume, it suggests the decline reached a climax and better days are ahead

8/8 Conclusion

Nobody knows the exact date when BTC will bottom out, but every macro technical indicator points between now and the end of the year

We could see a last big push to 13-15k and quickly go back up

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes”

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