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WTF Should I Expect and Why I Should Worry

Some people been asking how I determine entries and exits as a swing trader on W TFs. Partially: experience. I argued that 17.6 was a major swing low (educated guess). I bought on the first test, ±18K without a SL (spot). I will use BTC as example but I bought alts as well. 1/8

Not huge positions, but enough to care. Now I waited for the bigger retest, to determine my buying range (assuming it would hold). I assumed it would be around 19K, so I laddered in between 19.2 and 18.5. Turned out, we never went deeper than 18.6. So good guess.

2/8

Every time we would enter the buying range I would add to positions, providing it showed no incredible weakness. SL is now below the 17.6 swing low.

Now the most important part: exit.

First bounce is often 236/382 but BTC has a tendency for the 50.

3/8

As you can see, they all played a role, but the count did not make sense to already TP on the 236 or 382. As a swing trader, you want the swing high on YOUR TF!

4/8

When we reached the 50, it seemed like a good time to TP. Also because of the 12hr chart. RSI, Stoch, EW count and Rising Wedge screamed TP.

I also indicated on the chart why I was confident to reload at the bottom of the range. Bull divs and low RSI/Stochastic.

5/8

You will also see I added a new fib, in case this was consolidation and I wanted to see how we got to the 618/65. Clearly that was a selling point. See also fib and stochastic. On the way down, the buy zone looked ok again, for the same reasons.

6/8

So what am I looking for now? Now, first of all there is a new fib and we are approaching 618/65 and looking a bit tired. However, the Weekly needs to bounce at some point. So I am holding out maybe a bit longer. I am actually looking for a new swing high, maybe 26.6.

7/8

But I keep an eye out for weakness along the way and macro developments. Never a straight line up and you don't want to overtrade. I do longer TFs, so the hourly moves aren't that relevant. First chart I check is 12h and then D, 3D and W.

Hope this helps some. Let me know!

8/8

For those trading smaller TFs: we are at resistance for BTC (red line) with RSI and Stoch pretty high. We might clear it, but I think the 618/65 will be too high a hurdle straight after. I would like us to clear the red line and retest that zone for support after 618 rejection.

Here is a possible EW count. If you day trade, the 618/65 would be a logical TP, providing we actually get there. However, as a longer term TF trader, you might want to ride the 800 USD pull back b/c you don't want to overtrade and you don't want to day trade a W swing position.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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