CrypNuevo πŸ”¨
CrypNuevo πŸ”¨ 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin and the Interest Rate on Wednesday

BTC Sunday update:

Big week ahead with the Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.

It's not gonna be an easy week to trade, please be aware of false moves and wicks, and avoid trading 2h before and after those two news announcements.


Where is the liquidity?

I know many of us took a short at 21.050 after seeing the previous analysis (I've already TP). Price topped in at 21080, so it was a good entry

But in the short term we could see a potential upside until 21.5k as there is some liquidity still up there

The previous chart is 1 month time frame and it shows

92B worth of short liquidations between 21.1k and 21.5k.

But if we have a look at HTF like 6 month time frame, we can see that in the mid term, the target is 17.4k with 179B worth of long liquidations.

My POV for this week:

False move until interest rate decision on Wednesday.

This means that if the market dumps Monday and Tuesday, market might be able to price in the estimated 75bsp

If market hit the liquidations above 21k at the start of the week, big dump after 75bsp

Then, these are my two favorite scenarios for this week:

M formation or three taps pattern with stop hunt (1 month liquidations).

I'd like to see the second scenario as that short would be a pretty high probability trade imo. But the timing has to match with the projection🀝

My opinion differs with the majority of analysts and that's OK.

The chart is telling me that there is a lot of liquidity all the way to 17.4k. So I would be cautious here.

It's common that the market induces traders to believe something is going to happen when the opposite is

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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