Mammon🤙
Mammon🤙 10 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trends: 5/11/2016

1/21, In this 🧵 i'll try to explain my view on BTC . Imo we are at a very important point where we either are at the start of a bigger bear rally or where we'll put a new high in followed by a new low. I've found something i want to share with you guys👇

2/ So first of all this idea is based on a continuation of the current trend. Since the top we are in a strong downtrend and imo we are

at a decision point where we either break the trend or continue it. With the important fomc meeting this week and the point where the price👇

3/ currently is, i think we'll get an answer to that question this week. I use the fibonacci tool in this example where i connect the high of a certain point to the ultimate low. After this you get the golden pocket (0.5 & .618) this is a very important level which provides👇

4/ strong resistance. I have found something very interesting which i want to share with you guys. So let's start. Since BTC

reached the ath we saw a strong downtrend. After some time we made a low at 33k. We can see some kind of big range where i've connected the high with👇

5/ Low. We can see the 0.5 & .618 levels. The 0.5 is often seen as the mid-range which is an important point. Reject and you go back to range lows or reclaim it and you can go to the range high.

BTC

came above the golden pocket but made a deviation and came back under the 👇

6/ 0.5 level after which the range lows didn't held and we saw new lows. After losing this range the price had to find a new range where the ultimate low is around 18k. If we connect the high and low again we can see our golden pocket again👇

7/ The price rallied and reached the important golden pocket again. Here we see that the 0.5 fib rejected the price again. After this the price fell in the boring range we've been in since then👇

8/ If we do the same trick again by connecting the high and the low we see the same thing happening again. Price reached the golden pocket but we saw a rejection again. Proving the importance off the golden pocket👇

9/ So the price is currently in that golden pocket again. So imo it is important that we overcome this level so that we not do the same trick again where we continue with the downtrend👇

10/ If we combine all of this we see a trend repeating itself over and over again. It is important to break this trend, this can be started when the current small range manages to break above the golden pocket with confidence. This will be the first confirmation of a change in👇

11/ trend. Hopefully i still have your attention cause i want to show you the same thing but based on failed range break-outs. We are seeing this thing happening over and over again but still people keep falling for it. So hang on a bit longer so i can show you another pattern👇

12/ Failed range break-outs are created to attract liquidity so that big players can use fomo buyers as their exit liquidity. This could be happening at this moment so i want you to be prepared for that scenario👇

13/ Notice how we stayed in a range for a long time but finally broke out. What we see however is that the price is falling back inside that range again which is a big warning sign for me. let me show you why this is a big warning sign with a few examples👇

14/ If we zoom out a bit we can see this as a bigger range where price is currently around the mid-range again. In this bigger trend we also made a deviation above the range highs after which the downtrend started again. But let's dive into more examples👇

15/ If start to zoom out more we can see that kind of the same happened in the 32-28k range. Create a small range> let people fomo buy at the highs> use them as exit liquidity and we see new lows👇

16/ If we zoom out we see the same thing happened in the 45-35k range. You start to see a pattern right? Every time we see the same thing happening. As long as we don't see a change in that trend i think we have to be very carefully being overly bullish here.👇

17/ We could even see the all time high price as a deviation above the range high after which we saw new lows. Again same thing👇

18/ This thread ended up longer as i thought but i hope it's a bit clear what i currently see. We see the same pattern happening over and over again. As long as we don't see a change in that trend the chances are bigger that the current trend will continue on BTC 👇

19/ So what would be a good start? Imo we must stay absolutely above 20k cause otherwise it will start to look very much like all the examples i gave. Best would be a clean reclaim off 21k to start with. Back below 20k and i think new lows could be on the table👇

20/ This is the first time i'm writing a thread and i know it can be improved quite a lot but these things come with experience. If you liked it i would really appreciate it if you could like and maybe retweet the first tweet. If people liked it i can do more in the future.

21/ for now back to the charts cause it will be a important week. Let me know what you guys are thinking about the charts. Will we repeat the same pattern again or is this time different? I'm very curious about all the opinions so let me know! BTC

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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