Mr. Tippy
Mr. Tippy 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin: Commodity Still in a Downtrend

BTC Thoughts thread. Bitcoin

1/ Looking at the weekly chart we're in a sideways trading range for now. The EMA's are still above price and sloping down. Price is also below all of the major moving averages.

2/ I see that people have started to get some hope in the market with last week's price action, but zooming out and looking at the longer timeframe, it doesn't change the overall picture. At all. Macro is still in turmoil, chart is in a downtrend.

3/ Stochastic RSI is overbought, even at these lower levels. This gets me defensive.

4/ Looking at the daily chart, we're still stuck in the lower half of the trading range we've been in since June. We have a lot or resistance above suppressing price. Price is fighting right now to get above the 20 week and 100 day moving averages and the centre of the channel.

5/

All of these have converged just above the current price. Above that we have both the daily and weekly 200MA's sandwiching a recent supply zone.

6/ Also, here's DXY, the US Dollar Index. We're still in a serious uptrend. Until this changes, there will be downward pressure on assets.

7/ In summary, Technically, there's not much to be bullish about.

Historically though, markets have begun their recovery before the macro, as markets tend to be forward looking.

8/ Also, as markets like to surprise, a bottom in this area wouldn't shock me because a lot of people are still calling for lower prices still. Also, there are some on chain metrics that point to us either being at a bottom, or close to it.

9/ Is here a good place to dollar cost average? If this happens to be the lows, then you bought in the range of the lows. If we see further downside, continue to DCA when the lower range forms, and you'll still end up nailing the range of the lows.

10/ Regardless of where exactly the lows are, almost every indication is that prices right now are cheap. And as @georgegammon says, buy when cheap, sell when expensive.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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