TJ 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

$BTC Update: Market Reaction To Friday's Market Reaction

BTC Update

Good morning all. Wow, massive Friday in the markets.

Let's check in with BTC:

From a TA perspective, things are looking the most bullish they have for months:

🔹Making higher lows

🔹 Lots of dubious low TF channels that look bullish

🔹We're through the 20w MA

2/ It's an interesting moment and you can put any bull argument to it:

🔹 'It's a nascent industry'

🔹 'Revolutionary tech'

🔹 'We've already had a huge sell off'

I agree with all of this. I love crypto. I just can't decouple it from the broader macro picture

3/ From a personal perspective, I totally misjudged the crypto market reaction to Friday's jobs data.

However, be that as it may, the crypto rally is a function of the massive Friday DXY sell off.

Gold also had its best day for months. Whilst SPX lagged.

A turning point?

4/ No.

I could be wrong, but for me, BTC will remain better correlated with SPX than XAU in the next few months.

Which means, if we see an SPX rally into and out of the Mid Terms (a possibility), BTC will go with it

However if we see the opposite, expect the same outcome

5/ Is this a bear market rally? Yes

Could it go further? Yes

Are we in a massively oversold environment? Yes

However, there is one HUGE elephant in the room

The markets are yet to experience that true pain event.

It is coming.

And until that happens the bottom isn't in.

This post is based on this twitter thread.


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