1/ Why I still think this stock/crypto leg up is a trap.
6 November 2022
2/ In short, macro is still bad. We are in "a bubble of everything". This means every asset is declining if the economy is going bad (there are exeptions such as the commodity sector). And the economy is still going bad, especially when we head into the winter.
3/ Assets go up, if companies/blockchains are making profit. This only happens when people are earning enough to have spare money to spend/invest.
4/ As we are in a period of still high inflation, people's earnings will slowly erode. And in the winter there could be an extra shock because of higher oil and gas demand.
5/ When it comes to earning erosion, high inflation is only part of the story. The duration of high goods prices also plays a role. This is what I think will catch a lot of people off guard during this winter.
6/ Now for a more happy story. I think towards the end of this winter and in spring will be one of the best buying opportunities for those who have cash on the sides.
It's time to Preps!This post is based on this twitter thread.