Gabriel Tan
Gabriel Tan 1 minutes reading from Bitcoin

How to Swap FTX and ETH and Wait for Capital injection

0/ Personally have some funds stuck in FTX. Assuming FTX does not receive a capital injection and commences

insolvency proceedings which drags for > 2-3 years, it seems +EV to swap funds to BTC / ETH now. Here are my thoughts:

1/ Scenario A: Post-proceedings, assets are returned in-kind but with a haircut. If one has long-term conviction in crypto, it is very likely that BTC and ETH prices in > 2-3 years will be much higher than what they are today.

2/ Scenario B: Post-proceedings, customers receive USD based on the value of their claims fixed at asset prices snapshotted on a certain date (e.g. when insolvency proceedings were filed).

3/ Scenario B seems unlikely - even in the Gox case with the peculiarities of Japanese insolvency law, creditors will receive a mix of BTC, BCH and cash under the rehabilitation plan.

4/ So if Scenario A is way more likely + one believes that BTC and ETH prices will recover in the next cycle, the risk / reward is favourable to swap FTX stables into BTC / ETH and wait out the insolvency proceedings.

5/ I have 0 proficiency in insolvency / bankruptcy law and like many others, have been shaken by this debacle. Would love to get others' takes on this.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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