Crypto cryptocurrency BTC BTC Bitcoin
How do we accurately identify those "fraudulent" onchain BTC data? We'll also share the addresses for the BTC dump at this time.
We often hear that large BTC transfers are wallets reordering, and a lot of old BTC
from 2019transfer in recently are belong to wallets reordering.
But sometimes wallets reordering will influence the price to increase or to decrease, and it will make people unable to figure out whether the price will be up or down. Now, we use tools to have a correct analysis.
If you only analyze various kinds of on-chain charts instead of addresses behind the movement, you may have a misunderstanding that on-chain data is useless.
Now let's show you how to analyze the BTC addresses for this dump. This dramatic drop was from 21,000 to 15,500. Basically, there were no moved from old coins on the chain in the last few days. But on October 18, 2022, there was a movement of 48,000 BTC.
From the chart above, we can find that four addresses were moved at the same time. The
profit for them is similar. Thus, we can have a preliminary analysis that these addresses belong to the same entity (person or organazation) that operated movements.
After these movements occurred at that time, many data analysis platforms gave their analysis, concluding that the movement was a Coinbase Pro wallet reordering. But we have a suggestion that we must check the truth behind the address.
When we click on one of the addresses, we can find that the cost of BTC of that address is 3,500 and there is a certain increase in holdings in July 2021 and June 2022.
We can click on this address link to have a look (the rest of the addresses has the similar action in outflow and inflow status with this address). Let's have an analysis.
We analyzed its destination for one of these addresses (18saWjMCchDTGWunefuDJSWNdz4p6KtfBL), and we can see the chart below which shows trace analysis, and these BTC flowed into various exchanges.
From the chart above, we can find that these 12,000 coins went through multiple transits and eventually flowed into various exchanges gradually on November 8 and November 9.
Meanwhile, by use the chart of BTC-balance distribution-total count (10-100),
we also can find there are lot of move.
To analyze the destination without the help of tools, it will be difficult to find the destination of these coins , so is this address of Coinbase? To answer this question, we analyzed the coinbase addresses that have 36,000 BTC moved on July 31, 2021.
The cost of 36,000 BTC is 1,300, and after the address moved, the market started to rise. After analysing it, we found that it began to flow into exchange until April 2022 after it has been transferred several times.
To verify the accuracy of the data, we continue to analyze the old coin on December 24, 2020, and the address meets Coinbase's aggregation behaviour. We can see that those coins in transit, but they never entered the exchange.
Until February 2021, 12,000 coins began to flow into various exchanges gradually. The cost of BTC of this address is 3,400 USD, address link:
From the chart above, we can think about the purpose of organizing the wallet, we have to be careful to a large amount of old BTC move. The chain has a fraudulent nature, we need to analyze it carefully. For any alerts in the market, we need to check again.
The reason why people think on-chain data analysis is useless, the essence is that on-chain data analysis require a certain konwleage. Below is the addresses link for this dump.
From this we can learn that transfers occurring in the profitable bitcoins on the market will not impact the market immediately, but rather lag many days and then the sell-off begins.
When we find that a large number of old coins start to move on-chain, we must monitor the address, turn on the alert, track the subsequent dynamics of the address, see whether the movement is rotating on-chain or flow into the various exchange addresses.
This will help you to forecast the market in the future.
I hope today's long tweet can help you. Thanks for reading.This post is based on this twitter thread.