🧵 Is Bitcoin's next destination 31,700? - A Thread
I believe that the next logical place for BTC to go is above 30k. In this thread i'll explain why.
 The Range.
1a/ We've been ranging between 17-25k for 145 days. And it's felt like it. It's been excruciatingly boring at times.
1b/ The range has finally been broken to the downside in the past few days with FTX being used as the catalyst.
Whenever you're in a range it's typical that once it's taken out one side of the range price then proceeds to the untapped side of the range.
1c/ Ie, if the Range High is taken first, then it's highly likely price is going to go down to the Range Low, and vice versa.
Here's another example on Eth
1d/ As an aside - How do you define a range?
Once price has consolidated and has set a high and low THEN retraces by 50% or more of the move then a range is formed. See screenshots below for visual explanation.
1e/ What happens after the range is broken?
A breakout from the range often leads to expansion. You can see this in the Eth range above.
1f/ So if the breaking of the range usually leads to expansion then why would I think that in this case we're going to reverse up to 31k rather than cascade further down?
1h/ This bigger range was started when we nuked down from 31.7k in June.
The whole time we've been below the middle of the range (except for a few hours). Why is this important?
It's the Discount Zone.
1i/ The bottom 50% of a range = price being delivered at discount.
The top 50% of a range = price being delivered at a premium.
Market Makers accumulate in Discount Zones (bullish) and distribute in Premium Zones (bearish).
1j/ Remember in tweet 1h I said we'd been in this Discount zone for 145 days... except for a few hours?
This is important. Price has actually retraced more than 50% of the move. This therefore gives us our range to play with - with the top being 31.7k.
1k/ And what have we just done the past couple of days?
We've taken out the range low, but the range high is still untapped.
This is the main basis of my thesis of why 31k is more likely than us going lower.
1l/ Right now we're coming back into the range. A daily close today inside it will be positive. A 3 day close inside would be even better. A weekly close within would be as good as confirmation you can get.
2/ The Power of 3.
All credit goes to @qasim7889 for putting this power of 3 idea into my head (back in September btw - go follow this guy!).
Accumulation. Manipulation. Expansion. See @RektProofs tweets for more learning on this topic.
3a/ Sentiment on crypto twitter is at an all time low. Fear is at an all time high. We've just had a complete blowout with prices dropping rapidly by 30%, 40%, 50% and more. People do not want to buy extremely fast crashes.
3b/ I've been watching as buy targets have been set lower and lower the past few days. "I'll buy at 14k" is the new "I'll buy at 16k" which had been said numerous times
12-14 for Sol was touted for a long time. When it got there no one wanted to buy. It's now at 18 (up 40%)
3c/ I believe the fast and epic bounce we've had since the Asian session was all part of the plan. People were too fearful to buy at the prices they originally wanted to.
The MMs don't want you buying at extreme discounts, that's why they pulled prices back up immediately.
3d/ This is another factor of confluence for me to write this thread today. Fast moves like this are to strike fear into people, not giving them time to think if they should buy or not. Now prices are up 20%-40% from their lows.
3e/ For this reason I don't believe we go down to those lows again and create anything such as a double bottom. The chance to buy those lows is gone.
4/ Large Industry Players Taken Out
4a/ The past few months have been a shitshow of large players being targeted and having any flaws in their coin or business being exploited.
FTX and Alameda were the last and biggest target to be shot at, and boy was it spectacular.
4b/ Who would have thought last week that in the space of 3 days the 2nd largest exchange and one of the leading industry figures (@SBF_FTX would be obliterated in the manner they have?
This is news so big it's made international headlines in mainstream media.
4c/ Confidence is at an all time low. There is extreme skepticism of crypto right now. Who in their right mind would buy?
Well, what a great time to push price up in order to distribute at higher prices, huh?
5/ Tether FUD
5a/ Why is it just before price bottoms we have extreme Tether FUD? It's always the last thing to happen before we bottom out (at least temporarily).
Tweets of 'Tether is depegging' become rampant.
5b/ Why's this important? The biggest fear in crypto is if Tether collapses and depegs. It would f*** everything up.
Every single time there's capitulation, Tether depegging becomes the fear as MMs manipulate the price of it in order to add fuel to the already burning fire.
6/ Bitcoin Dominance
6a/ The key to a proper bounce that we can have confidence in is Bitcoin Dominance bouncing.
It's been in a range for a long, long time. We need to see BTC Dom show strength - a strong crypto market is usually started by a strong dominance of BTC.
6b/ I'm starting to see signs that it may be bottoming out. Four of the past six 3 Day candles have been vector candles - and it hasn't broken down further. Lots of vector candles at the lows usually mean a move is coming. In the previous lows we haven't seen as many vectors.
6c/ This may mean that Alts take a backseat for a while and don't pump as much as Bitcoin will. This is good. You want to see this in order to have prices moving steadily higher whilst BTC takes centre stage.
7/ Volume/Tick volume
7a/ Tick volume on the daily has increased more and more as this range has gone on. Finally reaching a crescendo over the past few days (hopefully).
There is divergence here as price remains in a range but volume going higher and higher.
8/ USDT Dominance
8a/ USDT Dom looks like it's making a double top. The only thing I would have liked to have see was it sweeping the previous high. However, if it keeps closing below 9.5% we're good for a rally.
9/ The One Year Anniversary
9a/ This may just be coincidence, but it's certainly an interesting parallel. Bitcoin topped at 69k on the 10th of November 2021.
Today's date is 10th of November 2022. Perhaps we've finally come full circle?
10/ End of thread.
If you like it why not head back to the top of the thread and retweet it?
I try to do my best to help. I'm sorry i've been missing in action for a while, but a RT would really help out.
Thank you for reading.
this twitter thread.