Miner profitability heuristics
Profitability can be determined by how much a miner earns per Exahash (EH/s). AKA how much energy is dedicated to BTC production
From peak earnings of 9 BTC every 1 EH/s, to trough
3.50 BTC per 1 EH/s,
How does this affect profit margins?
Let's look into the nitty gritty:
Taking an AVG of the top 50 most efficient [J/Gh] equipment models: You get a Hash output = 75 (Th/s)
Global Elec. Cost per kWh [USD] = .05
& Assuming current measures stay constant
Estimated earnings per X amount of units
If we model this estimated cost of production at scale, we have a clearly surpassed that threshold, where cost of production has exceeded (+) profit territory.
Cost production is one fraction of the story...
What about CapEx?
As an example, the 50 most efficient mining models, on AVG cost = 3,837
It would take 830 days to pay this off assuming all measures are constant and not including other service or operating expenses
What does this imply?
A capital intensive industry that is highly competitive does make debt a cause for concern.
Core Scientific being one of these cohorts, incurring debt to finance operations.
This caused their Debt to Equity ratio swell
We can estimate production outputs of individual mining cohorts via realized Hashrate - @BlocksBridge_
This gives us an implied BTC production output.
Since Jan of this year, the output dominance was lead by CoreS.
This post is based on this twitter thread.