MG
MG 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here? A A Discussion

I’ve been looking at BTC spot market volumes across major exchanges & CME bitcoin futures and compared daily volumes vs average daily rolling volumes.

Here are a few conclusions - not investment advice, just my own personal observations.

A thread.

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Binance BTCUSDT 8 Nov: 760k (342.6k avg) 9 Nov: 731k (367.7k avg) 10 Nov: 608k (387.7k avg)

Coinbase BTCUSD 9 Nov: 119.6k (36.2k avg)

The last time Coinbase had comparable volume was Fri 13, March 2020 (130.3k)

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Kraken BTCUSD 8 Nov: 16.7k (3.94k avg) 9 Nov: 15.9k (4.72k avg) 10 Nov: 13.5k (5.4k avg)

CME futures 8 Nov: 44.9k (12.8k avg)

Nov 8 was the all time high daily volume traded on the BTC futures product.

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The 2014-2015 bear market peaked and bottomed post Bitstamp hack in jan 2015 -

approx 1 year after ATH in nov 2013.

What followed were 2 years of complete desperation. Bitstamp was the largest BTCUSD exchange at the time.

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The 2017 bull market peaked in nov 2017 and bottomed in nov 2018.

The 2018 bear market cannot compare to 2014-2015 IMO, as it had not significant blow-ups to mark the end of the cycle.

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The 2020 rally started with the corona dump on (Friday) March 13th. The market peaked in Nov 2021 and on year later FTX imploded on 8 Nov 2022.

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Past experience is not an indicator of the future but:

- given the above average spot volumes unseen since March 2020 (Coinbase), June 2022 (Kraken), or all time high (Binance, CME); - peak FUD (other companies going under following FTX fallout);

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- all round desperation, calls for 10k; - historical patterns of bitcoin bull / bear cycles playing out again

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Conclusion:

The above would indicate that the bitcoin markets have capitulated and that the final phase of the bear cycle is upon us.

We may have hit bottom, maybe not - but we are likely closer than people seem to think.

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And finally, the objective is to survive.

Don’t be a hero.

Stay safe & good luck!

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There is more to life than just crypto.

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This post is based on this twitter thread.

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