MG 3 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here? A A Discussion

I’ve been looking at BTC spot market volumes across major exchanges & CME bitcoin futures and compared daily volumes vs average daily rolling volumes.

Here are a few conclusions - not investment advice, just my own personal observations.

A thread.


Binance BTCUSDT 8 Nov: 760k (342.6k avg) 9 Nov: 731k (367.7k avg) 10 Nov: 608k (387.7k avg)

Coinbase BTCUSD 9 Nov: 119.6k (36.2k avg)

The last time Coinbase had comparable volume was Fri 13, March 2020 (130.3k)


Kraken BTCUSD 8 Nov: 16.7k (3.94k avg) 9 Nov: 15.9k (4.72k avg) 10 Nov: 13.5k (5.4k avg)

CME futures 8 Nov: 44.9k (12.8k avg)

Nov 8 was the all time high daily volume traded on the BTC futures product.


The 2014-2015 bear market peaked and bottomed post Bitstamp hack in jan 2015 -

approx 1 year after ATH in nov 2013.

What followed were 2 years of complete desperation. Bitstamp was the largest BTCUSD exchange at the time.


The 2017 bull market peaked in nov 2017 and bottomed in nov 2018.

The 2018 bear market cannot compare to 2014-2015 IMO, as it had not significant blow-ups to mark the end of the cycle.


The 2020 rally started with the corona dump on (Friday) March 13th. The market peaked in Nov 2021 and on year later FTX imploded on 8 Nov 2022.


Past experience is not an indicator of the future but:

- given the above average spot volumes unseen since March 2020 (Coinbase), June 2022 (Kraken), or all time high (Binance, CME); - peak FUD (other companies going under following FTX fallout);


- all round desperation, calls for 10k; - historical patterns of bitcoin bull / bear cycles playing out again



The above would indicate that the bitcoin markets have capitulated and that the final phase of the bear cycle is upon us.

We may have hit bottom, maybe not - but we are likely closer than people seem to think.


And finally, the objective is to survive.

Don’t be a hero.

Stay safe & good luck!


There is more to life than just crypto.


This post is based on this twitter thread.


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