BTC needs to reclaim 19k relatively quickly (next day or two), to put a Cycle behind it.
Otherwise the market would be signaling a deeper cut is required.
That's my read.
Adding some clarity on this.
From an ultimate low or end to bear market, this does change things.
FTX was a surprise to 99% of FTX employees and large cap investors. Meaning, this event was not pre-priced in.
Impact is liquidity but more important, trust.
This delays and slows the build out of the next bull phase, but it doesn't kill it!
So in the short-term, the market will (if not already) find lows and offer a relief rally.
But expect the next 60-day Cycle, due in early January, to experience at least a retest of these areas.
And we could spend big portions of that cycle down near (or below) those lows.
So I think it's more likely the 4 Year Cycle Low is reserved for the Jan time-frame.
If shit really hits the fan, it's not entirely implausible that it's March.
Cycles reflect what is known about the market.
New information with serious bite, has come to light.
Basically, more time is needed.
More time to heal and absorb the impact.
Personally, not unfazed.
Time is always the key.
I still fall back on the idea that if you believe in the peer to peer aspect of the space AND your time-frame is wide, we find ourselves in one of the most attractive periods for investors.This post is based on this twitter thread.