Once again, let's be honest here:
BTC is trading at 16.8k while have equities ripped, the dollar has weakened, and implied volatility for equities has contracted meaningfully.
What's likely to happen to the BTC exchange rate during the next legacy risk-off moment?
Steady lads, global deleveraging underway.
The debt based house of cards is tumbling, the ponzi crypto market is just the most illiquid and leveraged - the bitcoin exchange rate is just collateral damage.
We are on step 3 of the second picture in legacy markets.
I still believe the worst of the legacy market deleveraging is ahead of us.
In my opinion, this doesn't all end with the VIX at 22.
I'm staying patient and staying liquid, with the goal of allocating in large (relative) size later on.
Do I know exactly where BTC will bottom?
Of course not, no one does.
However, probabilistically, when looking at the macro regime in confluence w/ the state of the crypto ecosystem, and a break of five year support, I think BTC trades through this low volume range for a time.
Okay, that’s enough market talk for now.
At Los Angeles for Pacific Bitcoin for the week, if you’re here, make sure to come say hi and introduce yourself.
This post is based on this twitter thread.