holeyprofit
holeyprofit 4 minutes reading from Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price: The End of a Bubble?

Recurring update thread tracking the BTC squeeze setting up or me falling flat on my face betting on it and getting stopped out.

Goal is to teach a bit about how a bottom form, or at least how to escape relative unscathed if I am completely wrong.

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All of these are forward looking forecasts to objectively test the efficacy of the proposed idea or how efficiently they get an exit at loss (Efficient = Getting stopped out before it gets worse, but not getting stopped out before it turns up).

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Firstly, I know the highest odds of a turn down are from a 76. As such, I can infer if we get above here, we probably have more upside.

I know I do not want to short on the 76 but I have good RR shorting under it and maybe will buy retests of it if it breaks.

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Next, I know a correction will usually come in 2 legs and a reversal in 3. We have possibly 3 legs in here. Can never be sure at this point but when I see we might have 3 legs I want to draw my fibs for a 76 retracement. Give me a good buying level.

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The first move can sometimes have a double bottom or even a very mild spike out, so at this point I can define my risk area as here.

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And I know if it does squeeze, it's going to spike out the recent range where all the newbies stops are. So, I know my target area is at least this.

Big asymmetric RR.

Could lose on this many times and breakeven getting it once.

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My favourite thing in the world is when I can make a TA forecast a yr ago and when it comes time to take action on it people parrot the recent news to me (Like I don't have the internet).

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When you do something, few people can do. Fewer still understand. Seemed impossible when you first made the forecast - and people discard all this to tell you the news absolutely everyone knows. That's a good thing. Markets will be easy, or you'll be right.

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I regard my risk as unacceptably high under the red line. In no circumstances would I hold long under there. The only thing that'd have me in longs under there would be a gap (And BTC is not known to gap)

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Before any squeeze can happen, the market will usually trade flat long enough for a narrative to become encamp. For the end of the asset forecasts to be written up in detail and generally give everyone time to be spectacularly wrong. Then move too quick to adjust.

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Please note - This is a TA forecast but we'd often see good news to compliment a squeeze. The market will move with a reason. If we make a low off bad news and recover on good, this sets everyone up to be slaughtered in the second bear after the blue bounce.

**Red line - Forgto pic.

This post is based on this twitter thread.

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