🧵Here is a thread on looking back at the price action and BTC reaction. By all means, this is not financial advice this is for me to document publicly if it's truly what I see can happen. 👇 1/17
1/17 Let's bring it back to 2011-2012 when I first bought my BTC and fell in love with the blockchain and eCurrency what people called it. My price actions and graphs will be shown from Bitstamp/USD Weekly Chart. Where I remember buying a ton. Stables were not introduced.
2/17 The first time BTC ever saw some crazy crazy volume was when it found support @ 72.00 and went parabolic reaching a blow-off top of 1,163.00. For the first time ever we took a 86% drawback down to 152.00. This was the first time ever breaking the EMA 100 (blue line).
3/17 Looking at the breakdown % from when we crossed under the EMA 100 we found a support bounce and the total drawback within a range of 59%. It took 322 days to then cross back over the EMA 100. Then the next market bull cycle started in 2015.
4/17 The 2015 market bull run was very interesting. We never broke under the EMA 20 (Red Line) from 2015 to ending of 2018. Toping at 19,666, and starting at 255. This was one hell of a ride
5/17 This is when everyone remembers BTC Winter. We fell hard and we fell quick. This was when we first saw the EMA20 (Red Line) get rejected and we got rejected multiple times over and over again until the mass bleeding hit. Crossing over the EMA100 (Blue Line) which max pan hit
6/17 From bull to bear. From top to bottom we pulled back like the previous bull cycle exactly 83% range. Previous 2013 cycle 86% small difference but yet really close.
7/ I want to input the max pain hit when we crossed over the EMA100 which took a drawback % of 47% range. This was also inputted as the first time we have ever seen BTC cross under the EMA200 (Dark Blue) range. This was the perfect time to buy BTC as the last cycle was 59%.
8/17 I remember it like yesterday. I was coming back from the airport and remembered opening up my portfolio on this mobile app and saw that crypto was up like crazy. "The 2019 Wake up". Everyone was cheering that crypto was back. April 2019 to June 2019.
9/17 This was a nice fake-out. Myself included got faked out as well I truly believed waiting that long that crypto was back and lost a lot of money on leverage. I thought this was the wake-up call for the next halving BTC was about to wake.
10/17 Then 2020 came along and Covid hit hard. Also known as the "Black swan" from 10K to 4K in just under 3 weeks. This time the drawback was 63%. No one from TA could of predict this, Other than fundamentals. "Crypto was over"
11/17 But people didn't put into account that BTC 2020 halving was just around the corner coming on May 11th. Where resulting in a block reward of 6.25 BTC. This was the "Wake up call" everyone was looking for.
12/17 Fast forward a couple months after BTC went parabolic yet again not crossing over any EMA's until May 11th, 2021. That drawback was 38% until going to the upside of our new ATH 69,000 on Nov 8th, 2021.
13/17 This is when I would like to call the New Era of BTC WINTER. And here we are today with all EMA's broken on the Weekly. 1 year officially in the bear market. Two theses I will input with data. Two ways, so pick your poison. 77% range drawback as of today.
14/17 This could be the bottom and we soon see a rally up to 186% range where we ultimately get faked out yet again around the 45K range which happened in 2019 from 4K to 11K. Then we get a drawback down to ranges around 25K where the EMA 200 would sit and 2024 comes around.
15/17 This would sit right when the next BTC halving comes. Or do we do what every bear cycle has done and do a true 80%+ drawback which would touch us back down to the 12K range and we sit there for while till 2024 BTC Halving comes.
16/17 You do have to put this in perspective because of how I remember in 2020 when everything was going to shit everyone thought "Crypto was over" Yet we are in the same simulation today. I do feel like the bottom is near because...
17/17 The DXY (The Dollar Currency) Is getting weaker and weaker as we speak. This is why I'm super bullish on the levels where BTC is today. Since 2011 I was pitched that BTC truly hedges against that dollar, If that is true you are watching history in the making. ❤️
If you read thru all this and want to support me retweet and follow will be much appreciated. Let's see if I was out of my mind or if some things come true. -BitBoyJay ❤️This post is based on this twitter thread.