If you followed my account for a while, you would anticipate me calling the BTC pump a bull trap. And your anticipated answer is correct. Here's why: 🧵
The market is composed of millions of traders all sharing one goal: Make profit.
The market action itself is dictated by the cumulative sentiment of the market towards one asset.
If all believe price is too low and buy in, price goes up.
Vice-versa is also true.
It would be impossible for us to analyze each individual trader's psyche, but cumulatively, we can view the market as one individual.
This individual is greedy, emotional, and impulsive. And most importantly, it is unnecessarily bullish or excessively bearish.
Anytime a single piece of bad news occur, the market will dump to hell, and slowly adjust back.
When good news happen, it do the same. The recent BTC pump was due to the false hope that FTX's damage is limited in scope, and saviors including CZ and Musk would come save the day.
They are mistaken. The market will ultimately fold to the macro environment:
1. Inflation is not solved, so interest rates will increase. 2. Recession is hitting people hard, so fewer people would invest in cryptocurrency 3. The string of CEX scandals have rocked confidence.
Of course, as with all things in this worldly existence, these factor's influence will be short-lived.
However, currently, these factors have not fully revealed their effect on the market. Once reality sets in, BTC will dump. I anticipate sub- 15k, but much lower is possible.This post is based on this twitter thread.